A grand technological style, proceed with caution

May 11th_Note:_Weekend breeze, full screen of technology.[Taogu Ba]
ByteDance’s valuation hits 200 billion, DeepSeek 8B, U.S. stock storage stocks are soaring so much even moms wouldn’t recognize them. Dapu Micro multiplies tenfold in fourteen days, making people envious.
Some people count money, I count heartbeats.
Regulators have issued warnings. Two companies delisted, a bunch of announcements issued, but few people are listening. Everyone’s busy chasing highs—who has time to look at risk alerts?
The limit of computing power is electricity, the limit of electricity is coal, and what’s at the end of coal? Probably the tears of retail investors.
Lixia just passed, all things flourish. But the market’s excitement may not be your excitement.
Remove falsehoods, keep the truth, calm down, take it slow.
【Review and Projection】

1. First, let’s talk about this “rise”
   Many think tech stocks are just emotional hype, but this time it’s a bit different.
   First, ZM is about to negotiate, going to Korea on May 12-13. Regardless of the outcome, at least for these days, the external anxiety and risk are temporarily gone. Funds dare to push higher because they’re betting that negotiations won’t suddenly blow up the table.
   Second, the State Council mentioned the “Six Networks”—computing network, new power grid, new-generation communication network—all on the table. Four departments also issued a document saying AI and energy should “mutually empower.” Intuitively, computing power will become infrastructure, like building roads and bridges. This shouldn’t just be called a theme, it should be called new infrastructure implementation.
   So, this round of tech market is backed by policy as a “safety cushion.”
2. Then, why can it rise so fiercely?
   Two reasons, both solid.
   One is price increases. Storage chips, DRAM, rose 57% in one quarter; U.S. stocks Micron and SanDisk announced a 15% increase—this isn’t just stockpiling, AI demand really pulled demand. More importantly, CPU prices are rising too—Intel and AMD’s financial reports show it. Previously, AI was thought to benefit only GPUs, but now CPUs are being re-evaluated (some Chinese stocks like Great Wall are being revalued).
   The other is capital expenditure. ByteDance increased AI investment from 160 billion to 200 billion; DeepSeek plans to raise 50 billion, possibly attracting big funds; Tianyang Technology signed 3.5-4 billion worth of computing power service contracts. The money these giants are pouring out will, in the next year or two, turn into orders for domestic computing power manufacturers.
   So even if there’s a bubble, it’s the bubble of an industry just emerging—markets are willing to pay for it.
3. But beware of potential risks (warning signs)
   The problem is, the rapid rise is too concentrated and too fast. Some signals seem off.
   First: regulators are cooling the market, but it seems the market isn’t listening.
   Over the weekend, the CSRC directly initiated delisting procedures for two companies, Qingyue Technology and Yuandao Communications, both involved in financial fraud. Meanwhile, major stocks like Dapu Micro, Honghe Technology, and Tongding Interconnection issued risk alerts. This scene is exactly like last year’s low-altitude economy and Sora concepts being wildly speculated. Regulators aren’t trying to kill tech, but they’ve made their stance clear.
   The issue is, now the market’s sentiment is high, and it’s ignoring these signals—yet ignoring them is itself the biggest risk.
   Second: valuations are already outrageous.
   Dapu Micro rose tenfold in 14 days after listing, with a market cap of 220 billion, but its first-quarter profit was only 300 million. You can talk about future prospects, but historically in A-shares, such a rise, once it cools, could see a 30% pullback or more.
   Another point: sulfur prices have risen 80% this year, and downstream titanium dioxide and phosphate fertilizer companies are already struggling. If computing costs keep rising, who will pay? Could AI demand be reversed and suppressed? This negative feedback loop hasn’t fully materialized yet, but logically, it’s bound to happen eventually.
   Third: the outside world isn’t as stable as imagined.
   The market is betting on “U.S.-China talks going well, Middle East calm.” But if you look closely, Qatar’s LNG ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in 70 days, indicating the situation is only temporarily eased, not fundamentally resolved. If negotiations fail or Iran causes trouble, the leveraged positions built up could be wiped out with a single bearish candle.
4. About strategies
5. Holding tech stocks
   You can continue holding, as the main upward wave isn’t over. But consider raising your profit-taking line, for example, sell half if it breaks the 5-day moving average. Watch two things: one, if Micron or Intel suddenly drops more than 7%; two, if regulators escalate from “announcements” to “face-to-face talks.”
6. If you missed the boat
   Chasing stocks that have already multiplied five or six times isn’t cost-effective now. If you want to participate, look in two directions: one, find latecomers in main themes like computing leasing, liquid cooling, or edge computing that haven’t yet exploded; two, watch “computing-energy synergy”—energy storage, smart grids, hydrogen energy—policies are in place, but funds haven’t yet poured in.
7. If you can’t handle this volatility:
   Go to cash or hold lightly, waiting for a pullback. It’s not shameful. After a sharp main wave, a rapid decline often follows. Preserving capital and waiting for panic selling to buy back is a safer approach.

This article is only a personal investment review and reflection, not investment advice. The market carries risks; decisions should be made independently.