BTC surges, ETH stalls at 2300-2400, six core reasons (Latest in May 2026)

⚠️ Virtual currencies are not protected by our country's laws, trading and speculation carry extremely high risks. The following is only an analysis of market logic and does not constitute investment advice.

1. The huge disparity in funds (the most core reason)

- BTC: Continuous inflow into US spot ETFs, BlackRock/Fidelity aggressively increasing holdings, positioning as digital gold + global safe-haven reserve assets, institutions lock in long-term positions, minimal selling pressure
- ETH: Continuous net outflow from spot ETFs, institutions only view ETH as a high-volatility public chain asset, not for core holdings; in the early bull market, funds prioritize grouping in BTC, avoiding ETH
- BTC's market cap share continues to rise, draining liquidity from the entire market, ETH has no new capital inflow

2. Narrative divergence

- BTC: Geopolitical conflicts + weakening dollar credit → safe-haven, inflation hedge, still rising in a high-interest-rate environment
- ETH: DeFi, Layer2, on-chain positive news are long-term logic, cannot stimulate prices in the short term; public chain competition, Solana diversion, no explosive narratives

3. Macro interest rates suppress ETH more severely

- Fed rate cut expectations have significantly cooled (only 24% chance of rate cuts in 2026), high interest rates are more negative for growth risk assets like ETH than for safe-haven BTC
- BTC benefits from safe-haven premiums, ETH suffers from liquidity negatives, naturally diverging in trend

4. Technical resistance zone

- ETH strong support: 2300, strong resistance: 2400-2430
- No volume breakthrough of resistance, dips are supported by bottom-fishing, long-term narrow sideways consolidation
- BTC continuously breaks new highs, ETH follows with passive volatility, no independent trend

5. On-chain and selling pressure structure

- BTC exchange balances continue to hit new lows, supply and demand are extremely tight, prices rise with a pull
- ETH large staking unlocks, hedging sell pressure, Layer2 token diversion, heavy trapped positions above, unable to rise

6. Cycle rhythm mismatch

- This bull market: Bitcoin leads the rally → ETH catches up → Altcoins explode
- Currently still in the BTC unilateral bull phase, ETH is still consolidating at low levels, waiting for BTC to rise and capital rotation, then ETH will start

Simple summary:
Institutions are currently buying gold and BTC, watching ETH; for ETH to break 2400 and surge, it must wait for ETF inflows, rate cuts, the June Glamsterdam upgrade catalyst, and capital rotation from BTC. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌#Gate广场五月交易分享