Overview of Middle East Situation | May 11

Iran, after a week of waiting in the United States, officially submitted a written response to the latest peace proposal from the U.S. on May 10. Although Iran described its stance as "pragmatic and positive," focusing mainly on fully ending regional wars and arrangements for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump publicly rejected the response, accusing Iran of "delaying" for decades. Multiple drone attack reports also emerged over the Gulf, damaging commercial ships, further eroding regional trust. Negotiations and attacks are simultaneously ongoing during a fragile ceasefire, which faces mounting pressure once again.

1. U.S.-Iran Game: Written response delivered, Trump immediately rejects

Since the U.S. submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran via Pakistan last week, the U.S. initially expected Iran to respond by May 8. After several days of delay, Iran finally, on May 10, through Pakistan’s mediation, formally delivered a written reply to the U.S., detailing its demands.

Earlier on the 10th, Trump stated he was waiting for Iran’s reply and claimed "Iran very much hopes to reach an agreement." However, later that day, he expressed dissatisfaction on social media, criticizing Iran’s Islamic Republic for "playing tricks" with "delays" and "waiting" for decades, and said the response was "illogical" and "I do not accept this reply." On the same day, he confirmed he had a "very friendly" phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasizing that Iran negotiations are led by the U.S., and other countries "don’t count."

2. Iran’s conditions for ending the war: comprehensive ceasefire first, nuclear issues later

Iran’s characterization of its reply differs significantly from the U.S.’s current pursuit of a "nuclear first, ships later" approach. Iranian official media and insiders revealed that Iran’s core message focuses on "ending all fronts of war, especially in Lebanon," while ensuring "maritime security in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz."

Iran proposes: the current negotiation phase should completely halt all hostile actions in the region, excluding nuclear issues and strategic arrangements; agree to a temporary memorandum of understanding (MOU) that includes a ceasefire and resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, followed by a 30-day window for formal negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and other long-term disputes. Iran is willing to suspend uranium enrichment activities but rejects the U.S. demand for a 20-year freeze and will not dismantle its nuclear facilities. Regarding highly enriched uranium, Iran suggests diluting part of it and transferring the rest to a third country, but requests a guarantee mechanism: if negotiations break down or the U.S. withdraws, the transferred uranium must be returned to Iran.

Iranian President Raisi also emphasized: "Talking or negotiating does not mean surrender or retreat."

On sanctions, Iran explicitly demands the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to lift sanctions related to Iran’s oil sales within 30 days and establish a clear, guaranteed mechanism for the comprehensive lifting of all sanctions.

A spokesperson for Iran’s National Security Council also issued a tough statement: "From today, our restraint has ended. Any actions that appear to attack our ships will trigger decisive and strong responses."

3. Hormuz and Gulf: Shipping routes loosen, drone attacks resume

On the eve of Iran’s reply, a Qatar LNG (liquefied natural gas) carrier, with special permission, crossed the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman and headed toward Pakistan on Saturday, becoming the first Qatar gas ship to pass through the strait since the outbreak of hostilities. The vessel used Iran’s newly activated alternative route. On the same day, a Panamanian-flagged bulk carrier also used Iran’s designated route through the strait. Iran sent signals of building mutual trust to Qatar and Pakistan through these actions.

However, reports of attacks continued at sea on the same day.

· South Korean ship attacked: South Korea’s Defense Ministry reported that the modern cargo ship "Namu" was attacked by "two unidentified flying objects" in the strait on May 4, with hits at the stern waterline causing a fire.
· Cargo ship off Qatar’s coast attacked: A cargo ship departing from Abu Dhabi, UAE, was attacked by a drone in Qatari waters, causing a small fire. No casualties, but the American-flagged vessel’s involvement made the attack more sensitive.
· UAE air defense alert: The Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted two drones flying from Iran, publicly condemning "Iran’s attack."
· Kuwait airspace alert: Kuwaiti military disclosed that multiple "hostile" aircraft entered its airspace early on the 10th, and they responded according to established procedures.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abadi warned France and the UK about deploying ships near the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that "such actions only escalate the crisis and further militarize this vital waterway," which cannot truly improve security.

4. International mediation: U.S. officials meet Qatar’s Prime Minister in Miami, multiple countries push for reconciliation

Diplomatic efforts continue. On May 9, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, held intensive meetings in Miami with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Presidential Envoy Wittekov, lasting nearly an hour, aiming to ensure both sides reach a memorandum of understanding. During his stay in Miami, Mohammed also spoke with Saudi Foreign Minister—Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are currently coordinating intensively to facilitate easing tensions and a final agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

5. Allies shift stance: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait relax access to U.S. military bases and airspace

Around May 7, Saudi Arabia refused U.S. use of its Prince Sultan Air Base and airspace without prior coordination, causing a setback to Trump’s high-profile launch of the Strait of Hormuz "Freedom Plan" escort operation. However, subsequent adjustments on May 8 showed that Saudi and Kuwait had recently lifted restrictions on U.S. military use of their bases and airspace, allowing the U.S. to resume operations.

This move by Saudi Arabia is seen as a diplomatic rebalancing: avoiding a complete blockade that could harm long-term alliances, while demonstrating willingness to re-engage support roles after dialogue progresses.

Recently, the U.S. State Department announced continued large-scale arms sales to the Middle East, including Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, and Qatar, with a total contract value of $25.8 billion, including air defense interceptors and weapons. Sanctions were also imposed on 11 entities and three individuals involved in Iran’s weapons procurement chain, including three Chinese mainland companies providing satellite data to support Iran’s strikes on U.S. bases.

U.S. Central Command also updated the level of maritime blockade: deploying over 20 U.S. warships enforcing a maritime blockade in the Persian Gulf against Iran, with 61 merchant ships rerouted and four commercial vessels deprived of navigation due to non-compliance.

Additionally, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met with the Armed Forces Commander, Abdullah, "receiving new operational instructions and guidance," indicating that Iran’s armed forces have not relaxed post-war vigilance.

Summary

On May 11, the U.S. and Iran exchanged bottom-line lists at the negotiation table, but both sides insist on different sequences and prerequisites for ending the war. Iran refuses to make "nuclear compliance" a precondition for ceasefire, insisting on ending regional offensives first before discussing subsequent issues. The continuous appearance of unidentified drones and attacked ships over the Gulf shows that trust remains fragile during negotiations. The fragile ceasefire in the Middle East is increasingly swinging between diplomatic channels and low-intensity conflicts.