#GateSquareMayTradingShare

Weekly Bitcoin Outlook: Rejection at $82,000 Raises Doubts About the Sustainability of Bitcoin's Price Rise:
Bitcoin's price faces resistance near the main supply zone around $82,000, achieving slight weekly gains until Friday.
It is expected that spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States will record the sixth consecutive week of inflows.
Uncertainty regarding the ceasefire in the Middle East and increasing profit-taking are limiting the momentum of Bitcoin's rally.
Bitcoin's price rise (BTC) paused temporarily, trading below $80,000 on Friday with modest weekly gains, as it struggles to break through a major supply zone. Institutional demand remains strong through Thursday, but rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increased profit-taking are limiting further gains, making the "king of cryptocurrencies" susceptible to short-term pullbacks.
- Institutional demand persists
Bitcoin's price continued to rise in the first half of the week, reaching a three-month high of $82,850 on Wednesday, before facing strong resistance at a major supply zone. This rally was supported by strong institutional demand during the week, along with improved investor sentiment regarding the possibility of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
Data from SoSovalue shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $768.40 million by Thursday. Unless Friday sees significant outflows, Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. are expected to record their sixth consecutive week of inflows, a positive streak that began in early April.
Weekly chart of net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue
- Profit-taking by traders leads to price declines.
CryptoQuant's weekly report issued on Thursday highlights that profit-taking activity in early May accelerated as Bitcoin reached a three-month high.
The chart below, on the left, shows a sharp increase in daily realized profits to 14,600 Bitcoin on Monday, the highest since December 10, 2025, as the 27% rise from April lows pushed Bitcoin holders into profit territory. Meanwhile, the short-term Bitcoin holder (SOPR) index, shown on the right below, rose to 1.016 and has remained clearly in profit-taking territory since mid-April, confirming that the recent price rally has prompted widespread distribution by Bitcoin holders.
The report noted that "historically, in bear markets, peaks in realized profits at major resistance levels precede local price peaks or sustainable accumulation phases."
Bitcoin: Daily realized profit and loss (left), Bitcoin performance index chart (right). Source: CryptoQuant.
The report also explained that Bitcoin holders are realizing a net profit of +20,000 Bitcoin on a 30-day moving basis, the first positive reading since December 22, 2025, after a period of large net losses in February and March, reaching -398,000 Bitcoin.
"With a net profit of 20,000 Bitcoin, this figure remains well below the 130,000-200,000 Bitcoin thresholds associated with confirmed bullish shifts in the market system, similar to the profit levels seen at the start of the upward wave in March 2026 before price corrections. This distinction reinforces classifying the rally as part of a bear market rally rather than a structural change in the system," according to CryptoQuant analyst.
Chart of net realized profits and losses for Bitcoin over 30 days. Source: CryptoQuant
Aside from this profit-taking activity, as noted in a previous report, the current rise in Bitcoin's price is mainly driven by demand for perpetual futures while spot markets remain in contraction.
Traders should exercise caution as the current market structure relies more on speculation than fundamental factors, reflecting patterns seen at the start of the 2022 bear market.
- Uncertainty continues to restrain risk sentiment
Uncertainty still surrounds the situation in the Middle East, where the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire late Thursday night. The Guardian reported that Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by targeting two ships in the Strait of Hormuz and attacking civilian areas, while Washington insisted its response was in retaliation. Trump stated that the ceasefire remains in effect despite these strikes.
The Biden administration is awaiting Iran's response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict. Iranian leaders have not shown any indication of accepting the terms of the agreement, although they have previously shown no willingness to back down from their nuclear program or accept a halt to uranium enrichment.
A new wave of uncertainty has led to a decline in risk appetite, causing a correction in high-risk assets like Bitcoin during the second half of the week. Any escalation or further intervention by the U.S. or Iran over the weekend could lead to additional risk-off sentiment, potentially causing further correction in Bitcoin's price.
$BTC