Analyst: Bitcoin's current upward trend is a rebound after a major decline, not the start of a new bull market.

BlockBeats News — May 10, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that he remains cautious about Bitcoin’s recent price action and believes the current rise is a corrective rebound after a sharp drop, not the start of a newly confirmed bull market. He pointed out that after BTC fell from $125,000 to $60,000, the market has shown signs of recovery, but multiple on-chain indicators have not yet reached the range corresponding to the bottom of the historical bear market. For example, the positioning structure of long-term holders (LTH) has not formed a typical bottom accumulation pattern, and the market has not gone through a complete phase of spot selling and panic capitulation.

On the macro level, Axel Adler Jr believes the market is also facing pressure. He cited data showing that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to 48.2, a historic low, while Brent crude oil remains around $100, intensifying inflation concerns. In addition, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to above 4.5%, which also suppresses risk assets.

He stated that in the current interest rate market, there is no longer any betting on the Federal Reserve quickly cutting rates, and the market has even started to factor in the probability of future rate hikes. Against this backdrop, he believes that BTC still lacks sufficient on-chain structural confirmation, stable spot demand, and the release of pressure from the supply side, so he maintains a cautious stance.