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Max volatility coming next week. I'm long vol on BTC (BTC to move + IV to expand)
Catalyst stack:
- Mon: Fed Chair transition (Warsh)
- Tue to Thu: April CPI + PPI + Retail sales
- Thu-Fri: US-China summit (chips, Taiwan, tariffs)
BTC has been around 79k-83k. With this much macro stacked, sideways is the lowest probability outcome imo.
The straddle prices a 3.1% implied move by May 15 at ~33% annualized IV. BTC has been quiet but realized has historically run hotter than this in macro weeks. I'm buying vol where I think it's underpriced for what's coming.
The breakevens are BTC out of 78.5k-83.5k range, trading on @DeriveXYZ
The bet is realized prints above implied. Five catalysts in five days, only need one to break the range cleanly.
NFA. DYOR.