Gold Market Analysis

Market Review and Short-term Outlook

Last week, spot gold closed at around $4,714, ending a series of consecutive declines, with a bullish engulfing rebound. However, near the $4,700 level, bulls and bears fought fiercely, with the weekly range exceeding $260. Technically, the 4-hour chart shows a W-bottom pattern; if it holds above the neckline support around $4,658, there is still room for a short-term rebound. But the daily chart shows repeated attempts to rise without effectively breaking through the middle band resistance, posing a bullish risk.

Contradictory Signals from Institutions

● Bullish Camp: Some investment banks maintain a year-end target of $5,200; Goldman Sachs provides a larger outlook of $5,400 by year-end. Goldman Sachs also warns that the Fed’s rate cut timing may be delayed until December 2026 and March 2027, which will limit short-term upward momentum in gold prices.

● Bearish Camp: Well-known investor Goncharov warns that gold prices may fall into a C-wave decline, implying a correction risk, and recommends holding cash and gold for hedging.

Core Driving Forces

The Federal Reserve’s April decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with no clear guidance on rate cuts, remains the strongest force suppressing gold prices. TD Securities points out that once current geopolitical conflicts and oil-driven inflation pressures subside, gold could break above $5,200. Meanwhile, global central banks continue to buy gold (net purchase of 244 tons in Q1 2026), ETF inflows, and inflation expectations repeatedly support the market in the medium to long term. Geopolitically, the ongoing US-Iran conflicts remain a short-term indicator.

In the short term, amid the repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market is expected to fluctuate within a wide range, with limited downside space. The key support level is around $4,650. Focus will be on whether this week’s US CPI and other inflation data can provide clearer signals for the Fed’s policy guidance.