Which provinces lead and which lag in economic growth in the first quarter? Why is there a divergence?

[Caixin] All 31 provinces across the country have announced their economic growth rates for the first quarter of 2026, with 15 provinces exceeding or matching the national level of 5%. Notably, the growth rates vary significantly among provinces, with most major economic provinces performing well, fully reflecting the “major economic provinces taking the lead,” but some major economic provinces have experienced a slowdown, and some provinces with already low growth rates continue to slow down.

According to Caixin statistics, in the first quarter of 2026, Tibet, with a smaller economic size, continued to lead the nation with a growth rate of 6.1%. Major economic provinces Shandong and Zhejiang followed closely, both with a growth rate of 6%; Beijing, Gansu, Shanghai, and Anhui had growth rates above 5.5%, with the first three reaching 5.9% and Anhui at 5.8%; six provinces including Jiangsu and Sichuan had growth rates between 5.1% and 5.5%, higher than the national average of 5%; Jiangxi and Tianjin’s growth rates matched the national level; the remaining 16 provinces had growth rates below the national average, with Liaoning (2.8%), Yunnan (3%), Hunan (3%), Xinjiang (3.5%), Heilongjiang (3.7%), and Hainan (3.8%) all below 4%.