$2.41 TON, do you want to chase?

Three days surged 114%, from 1.35 straight to 2.90, market cap 6.4 billion, up 87% in 7 days, doubled in 30 days— but just now, it dropped 4.3% in 24 hours, MACD starting to weaken, RSI plummeted from over 80 to 34, a whale heavily added short positions. Durov personally stepped in to “Make TON Great Again,” is this wave the start of a supercycle, or the final dump orchestrated by Telegram pumpers?

First look at the surface: violent breakout, momentum like a rainbow

Up 87% in 7 days, 100% in 30 days, market cap 6.47 billion broke into the top 20, 24-hour trading volume 625 million. The candlestick chart shows: directly breaking through the 2.0 ceiling from 1.35, all moving averages are above, bullish arrangement: bull return, TON is ready to go.

First thing: Durov personally steps in, Telegram becomes the biggest validator of TON

May 4-7, Pavel Durov announced personally staking 2.2 million TON, replacing the foundation-led network. The app with 1 billion monthly active users is entrusting its core to the TON chain.

STON fi SDK launched, Catchain 2.0 upgraded to sub-second finality, staking APY top 1 approaching 19%. Mini Apps, Wallet, P2P payments loop are already operational.

Second thing: DeFi TVL skyrocketed 65% in 7 days

Stablecoin market cap 750 million, USDT accounts for 77%, transaction volume of Tonstakers and STON fi is verifiable on-chain.

Third thing: a dangerous technical signal appears

RSI dropped from over 80 to 34, MACD histogram has been negative for 4 consecutive hours, whales increased short positions. That high point at 2.90, someone is running.

On one side:

Durov personally endorses, Telegram deeply integrated

Catchain 2.0 upgrade, performance crushes peers

Staking APY top 1, strong lock-up effect

TVL surged 65% in 7 days, funds are really flowing in

On the other side:

24-hour drop of 4.3%, profit-taking at high levels

RSI from overbought to 34, momentum sharply declines

Whales opening shorts, centralized trading dominates

Too dependent on Durov personally, if he ever shuts up, the coin could collapse

Key level 2.41, just one step away from the previous high of 2.90, also close to strong support at 2.00.

Resistance above: 2.80-3.00 → 3.41 → 4.00

Support below: 2.00-2.20 (strong support, breakout platform) → 1.80 (bottom line)

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 2.00-2.20 to buy, stop-loss at 1.99 (sell if it drops below), first target 2.80, second target 3.00.

Swing traders:

Wait for daily volume to stabilize above 2.50 again before entering, use dynamic take-profit to hold, target 3.41-4.00.

Long-term believers:

Invest blindly below 2.00, trusting Telegram’s 1 billion user penetration as faith. But cap at 20% position, TON rises fast and falls harder, always keep 30% cash as ammunition.

TON now is like SOL in 2024—

99% think “it’s just daddy’s pump, it’ll crash sooner or later,” but it rose from 1 to 4 before they regret not chasing.