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Will the Fed’s rate cuts this year be off the table? Where will Bitcoin go next week?

Today’s latest news: The situation in Iran is disrupting the oil market, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is also facing new variables!

On Friday, local time, the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, stating that the ongoing conflict with Iran and its impact on oil prices and supply have now risen to the No. 1 threat to the stability of the financial system. The report said that higher interest rates and rising inflation could have significant impacts on finance and the economy.

Of note, after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged following last week’s policy meeting, in the days since then several Fed officials have said that if inflation continues to rise and broadens, they do not rule out the possibility of raising rates.

Earlier, U.S. legendary investor and founder and Chief Investment Officer of Tudor Investment, Paul Tudor Jones (Paul Tudor Jones), said that the incoming Fed Chair Kevin Walsh will not seek rate cuts—and in fact may need to consider raising rates.

The so-called “Bond King,” legendary fixed-income investor and Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, Jeffrey Gundlach, also said that hopes for the Fed to cut rates sometime this year may have been completely extinguished.

Will this bearish development suppress next week’s BTC market? The Little God of Wealth believes that in the short term, the risk is not high; meanwhile, next week you still need to closely watch the U.S. CPI data.

On the one hand, Fed Chair Walsh has not, at present, made any remarks about stopping rate cuts or even raising rates. The claim that “hope for rate cuts this year has been completely extinguished” is also just the subjective view of some analysts, and so far this news has not affected the BTC market.

On the other hand, from a technical perspective, the uptrend of BTC bulls is still holding firm. On the 4-hour chart, after two days of adjustment, the market has formed a “head-and-shoulders bottom” pattern, accompanied by a mild MACD golden cross with moderate volume expansion. On the daily chart, the price has also found support at the MA5, and further upside remains possible. On the weekly chart, this week’s close is expected to stand above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and price action is strongly deviating from the Ma5 weekly moving average while refusing to pull back—this is often a sign of a bear-to-bull reversal.

Finally, the Fed’s decisions depend on economic data, so next Tuesday’s CPI data may become the key factor in whether the Fed cuts rates in June or in the second half of the year. It is recommended that everyone keep an eye on it. However, next week Bitcoin is still mainly expected to be bullish. Strategically, buy on dips, with a stop loss at 79000.