Aramco, 25% surge in net profit in Q1 2026... Impact of rising oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions

Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco saw a significant surge in net profit for the first quarter of 2026, driven by soaring oil prices and higher sales volumes resulting from the Middle East war. This is a typical case of war shocks to the crude oil market improving the performance of energy companies, with unstable supply acting as a positive factor for corporate earnings.

According to media reports such as Agence France-Presse and Bloomberg on the 10th (local time), Aramco said that its net profit for the first quarter this year was 120.13 billion Saudi riyals. Measured in US dollars, it was approximately $32.02 billion. This figure was up 25.6% from 95.68 billion riyals in the same period last year. In a filing to the Saudi Stock Exchange, Aramco explained that the core backdrop for the improved performance was an expansion in crude oil sales volume, higher oil prices, and increased prices and sales volumes for refined and chemical products.

The centerpiece of this strong performance lies in the tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. As Iran’s blockade of the strait intensified global energy crisis worries, international oil prices jumped from more than $60 per barrel in early February to above $100 in March. The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage through which crude oil from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries enters the global market, and any problems in the region can easily and immediately push oil prices higher. Aramco said that in this situation, the company was able to use an east-west oil pipeline connecting the eastern oil field areas and Yanbu port on the western Red Sea coast to transport shipments while bypassing the strait.

Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin Nasser, said that the east-west pipeline played an important role in absorbing supply-chain shocks. In fact, even if specific offshore routes are blocked, part of the volume can be shifted via onshore oil pipelines—an arrangement that improves the flexibility of Saudi crude oil exports. However, the pipeline’s maximum transport capacity is 7 million barrels per day, which is close to its limit; therefore, if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is extended, it will be difficult to fully eliminate concerns about supply disruptions. Nasser, the CEO, warned that in the past two months, global markets had suffered a supply loss of about 1 billion barrels, and even if shipping lanes reopen, the market will not return to normal immediately.

In addition, years of underinvestment have left global crude oil inventories relatively tight, which also adds pressure. The market believes that this year’s first-quarter performance only partially reflects the impact of the full lockdown measures implemented since March of last year. Therefore, even if oil prices remain strong in the future, a reduction in actual export volumes or logistical bottlenecks could still put pressure on Aramco’s performance. This trend may further increase volatility in the international energy market, depending on the situation in the Middle East, whether maritime transport returns to normal, and the speed at which global crude oil inventories recover.