Expectations of rate cuts repeatedly postponed, and the sensitivity of the crypto market to interest rates is changing

Since last year, the market has experienced multiple cycles of "expectation of rate cuts—missed targets—repricing." Each delay has reinforced a fact: a high-interest-rate environment will last longer than most people imagine. However, the crypto market's sensitivity to interest rates is not static. In the early stages, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq were highly correlated, with changes in rate expectations almost directly reflected in the price of coins. But recently, with the development of Bitcoin ETFs and on-chain ecosystems, the crypto market has begun to show some signs of "desensitization." On days when expectations of rate cuts fade, Bitcoin's decline narrows or even strengthens against the trend. This indicates that the crypto market is no longer just a shadow of tech stocks; asset narratives are diversifying. But don't overestimate this desensitization. If a high-interest-rate environment persists into the second half of the year or even next year, leveraged players and DeFi protocols relying on low-cost financing will face more severe tests. The true lesson from the ADP data is: be prepared for a long-term fight at high interest rates, rather than betting on an imminent rate cut.
#ADP就业超预期降息再推后
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