#Gate广场五月交易分享 The core judgment of the BTC volume–price relationship is this: you shouldn’t look only at the trading volume, but also at the scale of the US dollar funds. The real hallmark of a bull market is “rising with expanding volume”—the higher the price, the more capital is entering (such as the 2023–2025 main upward leg). But in 2025, from 90,000 to 126,000, there was “volume–price divergence”: the price made new highs, while the funds actually fell, similar to the “shrinking volume on a new high” in 2021. In essence, this is the final sprint of existing capital. A true big bottom, like 15,443 in 2022, was a period of “funds going completely silent”—with no buying or selling. Today, market capital is still active; it isn’t dead silent. It’s more like a tug-of-war in the middle of a bear market. Therefore, the key isn’t the price—it’s whether subsequent rallies bring in new incremental capital: only sustained volume expansion can potentially usher in a main rally, while a rebound on shrinking volume is still a contest among existing funds. Finally, emphasize this: trading is a game of probabilities—don’t overpush your effort into predictions; it’s more important to keep your distance than to desperately forecast.