The core contradiction of ETH right now is that “short-term stabilization and medium-term pressure coexist”: in the short term, after the price retraced to 2299, it stabilized and rebounded, with effective buy-side support; and with BTC consolidating at high levels and leaning bullish, ETH is able to maintain an upward oscillation. However, over the medium to long term, ETH is still near the convergence zone of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with heavier selling pressure in the 2370-2380 range above; and technical indicators are mixed between bullish and bearish signals, lacking clear guidance for a one-way trend.

In terms of market sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index is 39 (leaning fearful). The share of positive content for ETH is 50%, while negative content is 27%, indicating a large divergence in sentiment. Market attention is clearly lower than BTC’s: over the past 3 days, discussion heat has only increased by 2%, far below BTC’s 225%. This suggests investors’ confidence in ETH remains cautious. At the same time, the total ETH contract open interest across the network has declined, showing a “price rising while positions shrink” pattern. This is not driven by healthy, active buying; rather, it is a passive rebound caused by some short positions closing. True incremental off-exchange capital has not yet entered the market at scale, so short-term upside momentum is not sustainable.

Long

Entry point: 2310-2315

Stop loss: 2280

Take profit: First take-profit 2350-2355

Second take-profit 2370-2380

Short

Entry point: 2370-2380

Stop loss: 2395

Take profit: First take-profit 2320-2325

Second take-profit 2300-2305

Risk control: Currently, ETH is in a consolidation and convergence phase. The Bollinger Bands’ opening continues to narrow, and the price’s trading range is being compressed. In the short term, it will very likely remain range-bound, so it is not recommended to take a heavy position; prioritize small-position trial trades instead. Meanwhile, be alert to external factors that could affect volatility—such as U.S. stock market fluctuations and regulatory news (e.g., the U.S. Senate reviewing the “Clear Act” on May 14)—to avoid sudden risks.

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