Analysis of the Core Drivers Behind the Bitcoin Rally in This Round

(1) Strong Inflow of Institutional Funds, Continuous ETF Fund Inflows

US Bitcoin spot ETFs have become the core driving force behind this round of market action. In April, net ETF fund inflows reached $2.24 billion, setting the strongest single-month inflow data since October 2025. Since May, the inflow momentum has not slowed; the highest single-day inflow has exceeded $600 million.
Institutions, hedge funds, and long-term capital continue to add to their positions in Bitcoin. By deploying through compliant ETF channels, they have significantly boosted market confidence, changed the supply-and-demand structure of Bitcoin, brought continuous inflows of compliant off-exchange funds into the market, formed stable buy-side support, and thoroughly alleviated the previous pressure from ETF fund outflows.

(2) A More Relaxed Macro Environment, Easing Pressure from Rate Hikes

Global macro monetary policy has shifted toward easing. The Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle has fully ended. The market broadly expects the Fed to soon begin a rate-cut cycle. The US Dollar Index has weakened, global liquidity has flooded the market, and this is beneficial for risk-averse assets such as Bitcoin.
Inflation data has been declining steadily, while the pace of global economic recovery has slowed. Funds seek dual targets: safety + value appreciation. Bitcoin, supported by its decentralization, scarcity, and anti-inflation properties, has become a core asset for global capital allocation. The capital diversion effect is evident.

(3) Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Rebounds

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is controllable, and geopolitical risk-avoidance sentiment has cooled. Global capital markets’ risk appetite has rebounded, and risk assets have strengthened across the board.
Bitcoin combines the dual attributes of a safe-haven asset and a risk asset. In an environment where geopolitical conditions are stable and liquidity is ample, capital has surged in significantly, driving prices higher continuously. At the same time, forced short liquidations add to the move, creating a positive feedback loop of “bulls rising + shorts squeezed.”

(4) Supply-and-Demand Fundamentals Highlight Scarcity

Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed at 21 million coins. After the halving, daily incremental production has dropped sharply, market circulating supply has tightened, and sell pressure has continued to decline;
Long-term holders have steadfast positions, and the on-chain coin-locking rate remains high. Market circulating supply of coins is scarce, and an imbalance of supply and demand gradually becomes apparent, forming a pattern of supply-demand tightness that increasingly supports higher prices over the long term.

(5) Regulatory Policy Is Gradually Becoming Clear

Global cryptocurrency regulatory policies are moving toward normalization and clarity. Progress on the US crypto market regulatory bill is going smoothly. It clarifies the compliant status of crypto assets, eliminates concerns among institutions and retail investors, and further promotes healthy market development through more compliant trading—providing long-term positive support for the Bitcoin rally.

IV. Analysis of Technical Price Action

(1) Key Support and Resistance Levels

1. Upper resistance levels

◦ First resistance: $82,000–$83,000 (200-day moving average; recent high; strong near-term overhead pressure)

◦ Second resistance: $85,000–$85,300 (Fibonacci retracement resistance; a key medium-term pressure level)

◦ Third resistance: $90,000–$93,000 (core target levels for the second half of the year)

2. Lower support levels

◦ First support: $78,900 (short-term pullback support; 50% retracement level)

◦ Second support: $75,800 (100-day moving average; strong medium-term support; lifeline for bulls)

◦ Third support: $73,000 (the starting point of this rally; extreme pullback support)

(2) Technical Indicator Assessment

1. Moving average system: The short-term 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages are in a bullish alignment, diverging upward. Price has held above the short-term moving averages, and the bullish trend is clear;

2. RSI (Relative Strength Index): It remains in the 65–70 range, staying in a bullish strong-strength zone. It has not entered the overbought region yet, and there is still room for further upside in the future;

3. Candlestick patterns: On the daily timeframe, there are consecutive bullish candles. During pullbacks, volume shrinks, while during rallies, volume expands. This represents a healthy bullish consolidation-and-advancement pattern, with no obvious top-forming signal;

4. Trading volume: During the upward phase, volume effectively expands; during the pullback phase, volume contracts. This shows a strong “reluctance to sell” sentiment among market participants, and the coordination between volume and price is perfect.
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