Six weeks of net inflows totaling $3.4 billion, but Bitcoin ETFs are quietly "splitting up"

Let's start with the big numbers.
Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have had continuous net inflows, totaling $3.4 billion. The total market cap has also reached $109.5 billion.
Sounds pretty lively, right?
But upon closer inspection, most of the money has gone to just two: IBIT and FBTC. These two alone account for 60% of the funds.
IBIT added 11.2k BTC in net weekly inflow, FBTC added 1,290 BTC in net weekly inflow. What about the other ETFs? Either stagnant or flowing out.
Even GBTC is still losing, with a weekly decrease of 812 BTC.
This is a bit awkward.
If this situation continues for another month or two, whether those small ETFs can sustain themselves with their trading volume will be a question. The market isn't "everyone doing well," but rather two big players eating, while the rest are drinking northwest wind.
Let's talk about prices and psychological expectations.
Now, Q2 has rebounded 18.2%, which looks decent. But in the options market, call options with strike prices from 85K to 90K are stacked very high, reaching new highs for the year.
Tom Lee calls 76K the "bull market restart line."
So the question is: if the closing price at the end of the month is between 80K and 84K, what does that mean?
It’s considered passable. After all, it’s higher than 76K by a good margin.
But is it satisfactory? Definitely not. Because everyone is eyeing 85K. Missing by just a few thousand dollars makes people feel uncomfortable.
In the options market, there’s a high probability that traders will start betting on a breakthrough next month. If the narrative doesn’t materialize, they’ll have to rely on expectations for the following month to fill the gap.
Finally, a coincidence in timing.
The easing of US-China trade negotiations and this wave of ETF inflows almost happened simultaneously.
The question is: are they related?
Honestly, ETF inflows depend more on Bitcoin’s own performance. But you can’t say there’s no connection—when macro conditions improve, risk assets tend to follow.
The key is to think in reverse: if negotiations collapse again someday, can this wave of ETF inflows hold up?
Look at GBTC, which is still outflowing, and although ARKB had overall inflows over 7 days, it slightly decreased yesterday. This indicates some funds are quite sensitive; if the sentiment shifts, they might run.
So, the current situation is: there is some resonance, but it’s not solid.
The real stress test has yet to come.
$BTC