Amidst a wave of "rising" voices, Goldman Sachs alone "shouts" that lithium carbonate has peaked

I. What Happened? — Amid the din of voices, Goldman Sachs “claims” that lithium carbonate has peaked

1. History repeats itself: Goldman Sachs’ “early lead”?

Wall Street is no stranger to Goldman Sachs’ forecasts in the lithium market. In the second quarter of 2022, when Chinese lithium carbonate prices were still hovering at the high end of 500,000 yuan per ton and moving toward 600,000 yuan, Goldman Sachs released the famous The End of the Beginning, arguing that supply would quickly become excessive and that the pricing center would fall to below 100,000 yuan.

Although it later turned out that Goldman Sachs was too far ahead in terms of timing—lithium prices didn’t peak until the end of 2022, and the process of falling below 100,000 yuan was far more convoluted than expected—its “big picture” judgment accurately predicted the brutal inventory-drawdown cycle that followed over the next two years.

On April 30, 2026, Goldman Sachs once again raised the “bearish” banner, and its stance was even more explicit than it was four years earlier: lithium carbonate prices would peak at 164,000 RMB/ton in the first half of 2026, before falling to the 1.01–1.60 USD/ton range during the 2H26E–2028E period.

According to Wind, as of May 8, spot prices for lithium carbonate have already broken through 194,000 RMB/ton.

2. Goldman Sachs’ core logic behind its 2026 bearish view:

Goldman Sachs’ core logic this time is built on the “visibility of supply response.” Goldman believes that most of the supply additions in 2026–2027 are projects that were not completed in the previous super cycle. After these projects experienced a slowdown in capital expenditure in 2024–2025, they entered a concentrated commissioning period in 2026.

Goldman Sachs believes that although the global lithium carbonate market will still be in tight balance in the first half of 2026, this is only the “final frenzy.” Starting from the second half of 2026, the market will face a severe oversupply of 20%–22%. Unless ESS and overseas EV demand show a “miraculous” level of excess growth, oversupply is unavoidable.

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