Media Says Iran's Oil Sector May Outlast US Blockade for Months

(MENAFN) The US military blockade of Iranian ports stands to sever Tehran from critical oil revenues, but media reported Saturday that Iran could likely weather the economic pressure for several months without suffering a major financial crisis or lasting damage to its oil industry — a finding that could significantly temper Washington’s expectations of forcing a swift end to the conflict.

When the blockade was imposed roughly a month ago, President Donald Trump and senior administration officials predicted it would rapidly destabilize Iran’s energy sector.

Trump warned that Iran’s oil infrastructure could “explode” within days should exports grind to a halt. “If they don’t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode,” he said.

That scenario has not materialized. While the blockade has halted dozens of Iranian tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has managed to absorb the disruption.

Iran has gradually scaled back oil production and could exhaust available storage capacity within two months — a development that might compel some wells to cease operations entirely. Yet analysts suggest a widespread shutdown is far from inevitable.

Domestic Refining Offers a Lifeline
“They’re going to have to shut down about half of their production. They can keep producing because they can refine it domestically,” said Robin Mills of Qamar Energy consulting and the Center on Global Energy Policy at New York’s Columbia University.

Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group pointed out that Iran is no stranger to this kind of pressure, having navigated similar production cuts twice in the past 15 years under the weight of US sanctions.

“I don’t think it’s going to do tremendous damage to their infrastructure,” Brew said. “They know how to do this. They’ve done it before.”

Brew noted that Iran has already adapted, slashing the volume of oil loaded onto tankers from approximately 11 million barrels per week to somewhere between 6 and 8 million.

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