Six weeks of net inflows totaling $3.4 billion, but Bitcoin ETFs are quietly "splitting up"

Let's start with the big numbers.

Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have had continuous net inflows, totaling $3.4 billion. The total market cap has also reached $109.5 billion.

Sounds pretty lively, right?

But upon closer inspection, most of the money has gone to just two: IBIT and FBTC. These two alone have absorbed 60% of the funds.

IBIT has added 11.2k BTC in net weekly inflow, FBTC has added 1,290 BTC. What about the other ETFs? Either stagnant or flowing out.

Even GBTC is still losing, with a weekly decrease of 812 BTC.

This is a bit awkward.

If the current situation continues for another month or two, whether these small ETFs can sustain themselves with their trading volume will be a problem. The market isn't "everyone doing well," but rather two big players eating the meat while the rest are left drinking northwest wind.

Let's talk about prices and psychological expectations.

Now, Q2 has rebounded 18.2%, which looks decent. But in the options market, bullish options from 85K to 90K are stacked very high, reaching a new high for the year.

Tom Lee calls 76K the "bull market restart line."

So the question is: if the end-of-month close is between 80K and 84K, what does that mean?

It’s considered passable. After all, it's higher than 76K by a good margin.

But is it satisfactory? Certainly not. Because everyone is eyeing 85K. Missing just a few thousand dollars makes people feel uncomfortable.

In the options market, there's a high probability that traders will start betting on a breakthrough next month. If the narrative doesn't materialize, they'll have to rely on expectations for the following month to fill the gap.

Finally, a coincidence in timing.

The easing of US-China trade negotiations and this wave of ETF inflows almost happened simultaneously.

The question is: do these two events have any relation?

Honestly, ETF inflows depend more on Bitcoin’s own performance. But you can't say there's no connection at all—if macro conditions improve, risk assets tend to follow along.

The key is to think in reverse: if negotiations collapse again someday, can this wave of ETF inflows hold up?

Look at GBTC, which is still outflowing; although ARKB had overall inflows over 7 days, it also slightly decreased yesterday. This indicates some funds are quite sensitive—if the sentiment shifts, they might just run.

So, the current situation is: resonance exists, but it's not solid.

The real stress test hasn't arrived yet.

$BTC