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This chart compares four famous asset price bubbles or periods of extreme market concentration over the past 60 years:
The "Nifty Fifty" of the 1970s: At that time, the top 50 most popular large-cap stocks in the US stock market accounted for a peak of 40% of the S&P 500.
The Japanese asset bubble of the late 1980s (Japan, % MSCI ACWI): At that time, the Japanese stock market made up as much as 44% of the global index (MSCI ACWI).
The dot-com bubble of 2000 (Tech & telecom, % S&P 500): The technology and telecommunications sectors peaked at 41% of the S&P 500.
The current AI wave (AI Big 10, % S&P 500): Refers to the "AI Big 10" led by NVIDIA, which holds a significant share in the S&P 500. The chart shows this figure has again reached the critical resistance level of 41%.
Michael Hartnett uses this chart to issue a warning~
Historically, whenever market concentration (a few stocks or a single industry) reaches the critical point of 40%-45%, it often signals an increased risk of mean reversion, meaning the bubble may burst soon or enter a long-term correction~