Kalshi raises $1 billion in funding, the leading prediction market valued at $22 billion, attracting Wall Street attention

U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi completes a $1 billion funding round, valuing the company at $22 billion. The platform has obtained CFTC regulatory approval and is committed to driving institutionalization and global expansion.

Kalshi completes $1 billion funding, valuation soars to $22 billion

U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has officially confirmed the completion of a new round of $1 billion funding. The company’s valuation has jumped to $22 billion, making it one of the most closely watched startups in recent years across fintech and crypto markets. This funding round also signals that prediction markets (Prediction Market) are formally shifting from niche speculative tools toward mainstream financial capital.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the funds from this round will mainly be used for expanding into institutional markets, regulatory compliance, global market expansion, and building larger trading and clearing infrastructure. Kalshi has also clearly stated that its core goal for the next phase is to attract more traditional financial institutions and professional investors into the prediction market ecosystem.

Kalshi is currently one of the few legal event trading platforms in the U.S. that has obtained regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users can place bets on elections, interest rates, inflation, wars, sports events, and even economic data. In essence, the platform is not a traditional cryptocurrency exchange, but more akin to a “probability trading market.”

After the funding news broke, it has once again brought market attention to the trend of “financialization of prediction markets.” Event trading, which was previously seen as entertainment or gambling, is now gradually evolving into a new tool for information pricing.

From Trump elections to Fed rate decisions, prediction markets begin to influence Wall Street

Over the past year, as uncertainty around the U.S. presidential election, the Middle East war, and Federal Reserve policy increased, prediction markets rapidly expanded their influence. Many investment institutions have started incorporating data from Kalshi and Polymarket into their trading and risk assessment models. Especially during the U.S. presidential election period, the implied win probabilities on Kalshi for Trump and the Democratic candidates reportedly reflected market sentiment faster than traditional polls, leading prediction markets to increasingly be viewed as a “real-time public opinion and risk pricing system.”

Unlike traditional financial markets, the core logic of prediction markets is not corporate earnings reports, but the “probability that an event will occur.” Investors directly bet on future events by buying and selling contracts. The closer the price is to 100%, the more the market believes the event is likely to happen.

This model has also attracted many quantitative trading teams and institutional funds for research. Some Wall Street funds have even begun using prediction market data to get early positioning in the stock, energy, and bond markets. Market analysts point out that Kalshi’s valuation surge essentially reflects a repricing by capital markets of “information trading.” As AI and social media continue to accelerate the spread of information, platforms that can instantly reflect market sentiment are starting to develop new financial value.

Kalshi pushes for institutionalization, trying to distance itself from crypto prediction markets

Notably, after this funding round, Kalshi’s direction is clearly diverging from native crypto prediction markets. For example, although Polymarket has high traffic and discussion, it still cannot legally serve U.S. users due to regulatory issues. By contrast, Kalshi takes a fully compliant approach and is actively aligning itself with the traditional financial system.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has repeatedly emphasized that prediction markets in the future should not only be speculative tools, but should become “information infrastructure” within financial markets. This is also why, in recent years, Kalshi has been actively building clearing systems, risk-control frameworks, and institutional APIs.

According to reports, Kalshi may further roll out institutional-grade products in the future, including large-scale macroeconomic event markets, corporate earnings prediction markets, and additional contracts linked to interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical events. To some extent, Kalshi is trying to repackage “betting on the future” into a legitimate asset class within financial markets.

As the boom grows, regulation and ethical controversies heat up behind prediction markets

However, the rapid rise of prediction markets has also sparked regulatory and ethical controversies. Recently in the U.S., there was a case in which active-duty military personnel used classified information to profit from betting on Venezuelan military actions in prediction markets, once again drawing attention to insider trading and national security risk concerns. Some U.S. lawmakers have even started discussing whether to restrict government officials and certain individuals from participating in event market trading. In addition, when prediction markets begin to involve war, assassinations, pandemics, and political events, outside observers have questioned whether the markets might end up influencing the real world instead.

Further reading
Israeli reservist turns into an Iranian spy! Sells out the country for $1,000 in crypto—facing life imprisonment or the death penalty
Kalshi’s “Iranian Leader Resignation” $50 million prediction contract settlement sparks controversy! CEO: Rejects death arbitrage

Supporters argue that the true value of prediction markets lies in their ability to reflect collective cognition faster than polls, media, and analysts. Some scholars even believe that in the future, government and corporate decision-making may refer to prediction market prices as a risk indicator.

Now that Kalshi has secured a $22 billion valuation, it also means Wall Street is already betting on one thing: the most valuable asset in the future may not be stocks, but the “ability to price probabilities of the future.”