#Gate广场五月交易分享

Bitcoin bulls only need to receive one more signal to confirm the market bottom

The biggest resistance above Bitcoin's current price is neither an integer nor a chart pattern — but the breakeven point of millions of holders who bought Bitcoin over the past year but are still at a loss.

One level controls the narrative

A market expert from CryptoQuant stated that the "bottom is in" market sentiment has gone beyond the data itself. Analysts believe Bitcoin must regain and hold above $88,880 for any bottom predictions to be considered credible.

Just reaching that level is not enough. The price must close above that level and stay above it — otherwise, this rally is just noise.

The core logic revolves around the realized price range, which tracks the average cost basis of different holder groups. Currently, three groups have price ranges above the average. This means they bought at higher prices and are waiting for the price to fall back to the breakeven point.

“The bottom has already bottomed out.” Everyone says so.

“To confirm the bottom, the price needs to break through $88,880 and hold — it cannot fall below this level or fail a retest. Only then can recent investors break even again and remove the first layer of selling pressure.” — Author @IT_Tech_PL

The first group — investors holding for three to six months — has an realized price of $88,880. Investors holding for 12 to 18 months have a realized price of $93,400.

The largest and most concerning group is those who held Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago, with a cost basis of $111,800 — nearly 30% higher than Bitcoin’s trading price at the time of analysis.

When Bitcoin’s price rises back to these levels, many holders are expected to sell. They are not doing it for profit, just to exit.

Why did the $60k low trigger a bottom-fishing sentiment?

Earlier this year, Bitcoin dropped to about $60k in February, down roughly 52% from its all-time high of $126.2k. Since then, the price has risen over 37% and has not made new lows.

It is this rebound that fueled the narrative of a price bottom. Since no new lows appeared on the chart, many market observers believe Bitcoin’s worst period is over.

BTCUSD 24-hour chart shows the price at $79,999: TradingView

This fear and greed index market sentiment improvement also confirms this. The report shows the index rising from near panic levels of 5 in February to 47 — a neutral reading indicating the market has stabilized compared to the previous panic state.

Data over emotion

IT Tech’s most incisive analysis appears at the end. The analyst wrote that predicting a stock price bottom is just a narrative, while recovering and holding $88,880 is data.

At the time of analysis, Bitcoin’s trading price was close to $80,250, leaving about $8,000 to the key confirmation level.

The analyst said that until the gap narrows and is maintained, the market structure remains cautious rather than confident.