$BTC So far, we have been perfectly mirroring 2022 price action.

However, we can see a slight shift in the fractal.
Instead of accepting below the previous wick low (which we saw in 2022), we are above it. From purely a structural perspective, with no cycle timing, with not comparing previous bear cycle lengths, JUST from a structure perspective we are structurely bullish.
I have stated that I will not flip bullish until August/September period. However, if we are being objective, we can see a slight shift/de-correlation from the 2022 fractal. As always, history isn't going to mirror 100% of the time. However, this gives us valuable information.
If we revisit the previous wick low (74K), bounce & end up pushing to 80K a gain, that is a textbook SR flip an we likely end up pushing to 90Ks regardless of my current positioning in the market. If we on the other hand, fail to hold the S/R flip, this would be the result in a swing fail an we end up retracing below 70K again.
So at the moment, even if you are bullish & wanted to look for longs, the retest to observe is 74s-75s which we need to hold above otherwise its just a major deviation before lower prices.
Other than that, I thought i would bring this to light as I used 2022 to map out my 2025 bear market topping price action schematic which went viral. Now, we can see the slight shift, so observing PA on the retest is going to be quite crucial to determining what is going to happen next.
Just to clarify for anyone confused: I’m not bullish in terms of taking leverage long positions. I’m currently in a swing short because I expect continued choppy price action.
That said, I’ve mentioned in several posts that buying spot below the previous ATH (69K) was a good idea, though I didn’t personally build any long positions there. From a HTF perspective, the RR on the monthly chart suggests that over a 1–2 year horizon, anything below the ATH can be viewed as a dip.
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