I’ve noticed more and more people starting to regularly invest in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, grabbing US stock ETFs in large amounts. I’m really curious about this: somehow, across the whole internet, not a single blogger has said that the current US stock market has risks—I haven’t come across any. What I’ve seen are people praising US stocks and insulting A-shares, and they’re all the kind of talk about how to buy Nasdaq and how to make money in the US stock market.

It feels like the current US stock market is just like the housing market back in the day; you can only say it’s good, oh, don’t say it’s expensive, don’t say it’s risky, or you’ll be quickly proven wrong because it keeps rising, even if it dips a little, it quickly bounces back to new highs.
So I’m not making any judgments either, just sharing a few data points with everyone.
Many people might think the US stock market is a perpetual slow bull, it will keep rising, year after year higher, with no risk—that’s a completely wrong way of thinking.
If you buy at high valuation levels, you might get stuck for years or even decades, for example, if you bought the S&P 500 in 2000 when it was at 1500 points, you would experience three years of decline, your market value halved, and only break even after seven years, but if you didn’t sell in time, you’d be hit again. It wasn’t until 2013 that the S&P 500 finally rose back to 1500 points, meaning from 2000 to 2013, it was stagnant for 13 years. If you had bought Nasdaq at that time, it would be even worse, dropping 70% along the way and being trapped for 15 years until you could finally break free in 2015.