The Outlaw · Andy

May 10, 2026 (Reference points are only valid for the day)
BTC key core level: 81,000
BTC daily bullish-bearish dividing line: 80,100
Resistance levels above: 81,000, 81,100, 81,700
Support levels below: 80,100, 79,900, 79,500

Today, BTC is in a correction phase leaning towards sideways and bearish, rebounding from 79,400. It has hit the 81,000 level several times but hasn't broken through. The upward momentum is weakening, while buying support below remains but hasn't pushed higher either. The key level to watch today is still 81,000. This zone is a resonance point for Fibonacci short-term and daily charts, plus the one-hour high reached around 2 a.m. on May 10 is also near this area, with several levels overlapping exactly.

Next, let's discuss two possible scenarios. The more probable one, in my opinion, is if BTC can truly break above 81,000 and not be knocked back by a single attempt. The intention would be to continue the rebound from 79,400, aiming to push higher toward the 81,900 area corresponding to the daily derivative segment. This would be a key signal that could shift the short- and medium-term rhythm to bullish. But after breaking through, it’s crucial to see if volume increases accordingly; holdings should shift from decreasing to increasing. The four-hour closing candle must also stay above the Bollinger middle band; missing any of these three conditions would only be seen as a false breakout, and a retest of 81,000 would be necessary before attempting again. The support level to hold is around 80,500 on the four-hour Fibonacci support; if it holds, short-term momentum can still target the second attempt at 81,000.

If the price directly falls below the key support at 80,100, then the strategy must change. This zone is the lowest point of the one-hour chart on the morning of May 9 at 8 a.m. Once broken, the entire daily correction structure will loosen immediately. The next target would be around 79,800, then 79,500. If these levels are broken one after another, the weekly chart could be at risk of retesting the 79,100 zone.

Today and tomorrow, focus on two key points. First, whether the four-hour candle closes above 81,000 at 12 o'clock and whether volume increases. If it does, the upward momentum will quickly return; if the candle closes below the middle band again, the rebound structure will likely come to an end, and the focus should shift to the next support level. Second, any speech from Powell in the week before he takes over as Federal Reserve Chair, especially if it signals a more dovish stance, will weaken the dollar further, which is bullish for BTC’s recovery.