Don't be fooled! Bitcoin inflows over six weeks totaled $3.4 billion, and it's not because of trade resolutions!

The US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net inflows for six consecutive weeks, totaling about $3.4 billion. The longest continuous positive inflow cycle in nearly nine months.
BlackRock's iBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, two giants, have absorbed over 60% of the new funds.
Even more eye-catching is—the open interest in bullish options at the $85K to $85K to $90K levels has hit a new high for the year.
What does this mean?
Large funds are betting: the direction is upward, and the momentum is significant.
Meanwhile, yes? The US-China trade negotiations have indeed shown signs of easing.
So many people are starting to tell stories: "Look, they’ve reconciled, risk appetite has returned, Bitcoin has risen."
—I advise you not to be naive.
If it’s truly driven by trade negotiations, why have inflows started six weeks ago? The easing of negotiations is only in the past two weeks; who was buying in the first four weeks?
Is it possible that the truth is the opposite?
It’s not reconciliation driving ETF inflows, but ETF inflows simply don’t care about reconciliation at all.
What does six weeks of continuous inflows mean?
It means institutions are continuously building positions. Institutional behavior is completely opposite to retail traders—retail chase gains and sell on dips, institutions buy in batches, regularly, and disciplined.
Six weeks straight indicates this isn’t emotion-driven; it’s about position allocation decisions.
What does the accumulation of bullish options at $85K−$85K−$90K mean?
Large funds buying options aren’t gambling; they’re hedging or leveraging for directional bets. The fact that this level has hit a new high for the year shows professional traders believe there’s still room above, and that room isn’t small.
Trade negotiations are just a distraction.
Of course, US-China easing is good, but what if it’s not? Look at the data from the past four weeks—that was before any signs of negotiations, and money was still flowing in.
It’s not “because of reconciliation, BTC is rising,”
but “BTC was already rising, and reconciliation just gave the bulls an excuse to keep telling stories.”
What if tomorrow negotiations take a turn again?
Tariffs are reinstated?
Negotiations collapse again?
News headlines start scaring people again?
Do you think these six weeks of inflows will stop?
My judgment is: no.
The reason is simple—
Fiat currency depreciation expectations are spreading globally (no matter what kind of deal is reached, the printing presses won’t stop).
Bitcoin’s asset allocation attribute is being officially recognized by mainstream institutions.
Trade negotiations mainly affect the pace, not the direction.