Bitcoin’s overall bear-market decline cycle; on the daily chart, a bearish wedge pattern is forming.

In the short term, there is support and a modest rebound—an “it looks like it can hold” kind of insidious dip-buying lure. Weekend rebound volume is not enough and has clearly shrunk, with no volume-and-price coordination from the main forces actively pushing prices higher. Funding rates have shifted from negative to gradually positive; retail investors have started buying the dip to go long, and the risk of high-level longs getting trapped continues to build.
A big rally in U.S. stocks has diverted a large amount of capital, and enthusiasm in the crypto market is low.
Key level: 80,600 USD (2025.11 month low point, the previous consolidation range low point). Watch whether 80,600 USD holds; if it breaks below, that’s a short opportunity.
Above the 81,000 range: the upper edge of the consolidation range / dense-volume trading area; strong pressure—can short with small leverage.
Don’t chase longs or blindly buy the dip; only observe while above key support, and if broken, switch to a bearish mindset.
In the short term there is no clear short signal, but you can short at the rebound’s key resistance level; the probability of a subsequent pullback is high.