Pop Mart, what kind of game are they really playing?

Source: CITIC Press

The first trendy toy stock POP MART is caught in the storm’s eye.

On March 30, after the stock price experienced two consecutive days of decline of over 30%, it finally rebounded and turned positive during trading. Meanwhile, a rarely “retracting” major investor unexpectedly reversed his previous judgment—Duan Yongping posted on Snowball: “Decided to withdraw the statement that I would not invest in POP MART made by Founder Zhang.”

This investor, who once openly said he “didn’t understand POP MART’s value,” chose to reassess the company amid a significant stock price correction.

Just a few days ago, POP MART delivered the “strongest annual report in history” that all consumer brands envy: full-year revenue of 37.12 billion yuan, up 184.7%; adjusted net profit of 13.08 billion yuan, up 284.5%. The LABUBU with rabbit ears and buck teeth alone contributed 14.16 billion yuan, up 365.7%, pushing the trendy toy IP into the “hundred-billion club” for the first time.

However, the reaction from the capital market was shocking.

On the day of the earnings release, the stock plummeted 22.51%, and the next day fell over 10%, with a total decline of more than 30% over two days, evaporating over 250 billion Hong Kong dollars in market value from its peak.

The market’s “voting” logic is simple and brutal: POP MART is too dependent on LABUBU, and it surprisingly only promised “not less than 20%” growth in 2026?

Facing doubts about “growth slowing,” POP MART founder Wang Ning used a classic metaphor at the earnings conference: “In 2025, we’re like a rookie racing driver suddenly thrown into F1. In 2026, we hope to get to the pit stop, refuel, and change tires.”

On one side, explosive performance but “voting with feet” causing market value to evaporate; on the other, top investors’ attitude reversal. What exactly happened to POP MART behind the scenes?

Performance “Explosive,” Stock Price “Halved,” What Is Capital Afraid Of?

First, let’s review this bizarre “divergence.”

In 2025, POP MART not only broke through 30 billion yuan in revenue, but its gross margin increased from 66.8% to 72.1%, and net profit margin from 25.4% to 35.1%—a profitability level comparable to high-end liquor.

But the market’s panic is equally clear, mainly on two levels.

First, “LABUBU dependence syndrome” intensifies.

In 2024, LABUBU’s family, THE MONSTERS, accounted for 23.3% of revenue; by 2025, this soared to 38.1%. Citibank’s research shows that 47% of respondents first encountered POP MART because of LABUBU.

This means a large number of new users are “coming for LABUBU.” When capital sees a super hit occupying nearly 40% of revenue, and new IPs like Supertutu perform mediocre with secondary market prices nearly halving, fear naturally arises.

Second, the “sudden brake” on growth guidance.

At the earnings conference, Wang Ning provided a guidance for 2026: striving for “not less than 20%” growth. Compared to past triple-digit growth, this appears to be a “ slowdown.”

Some industry commentators bluntly said: performance is the past, stock price is the future; a single super hit bringing super performance is not enough to support the market’s imagination for 2026, and the possibility of repeatedly hitting super hits remains uncertain.

This is very similar to the doubts faced when POP MART went public with Molly.

Amid market pessimism, Duan Yongping’s attitude reversal has become a noteworthy signal.

On March 30, Duan Yongping posted on Snowball: “The ‘speed’ in economics is actually ‘acceleration’ in physics. Investing is about the future’s total volume, which is ‘speed’ times ‘time’ in physics, resulting in ‘total length.’ Of course, a bit of ‘acceleration’ can make you go farther in a unit of time. These days, I spent time re-examining POP MART and decided to withdraw the statement that I wouldn’t invest in POP MART made by Founder Zhang.”

As early as December last year, Duan Yongping said in an interview with Wang Shi: “I highly recognize its ability to turn emotional value products into such a form. It’s not just luck or casual success.” Although he said at the time he “didn’t understand POP MART and wouldn’t invest or buy its stocks,” he had already begun to see this company differently.

In January this year, when asked by netizens, Duan Yongping remained cautious: “I’ve roughly looked at POP MART and think they’re quite impressive. But I still can’t understand why people need this thing. What if in a couple of years everyone doesn’t want it anymore?” He also added: “But if you believe people will always need it and their business will keep growing, then of course it’s a pretty good investment for you.”

From “not understanding” to “retracting the statement,” Duan Yongping’s change is, to some extent, a continuous evolution of his investment cognition. What prompted him to reassess POP MART was precisely the company’s attitude during the stock price plunge: actively slowing down, pursuing steady growth.

POP MART, Ambitions Beyond “Blind Box Factory”

If you only look at the financial report, you might think POP MART is a “hit-making machine.” But in reality, its ambitions go far beyond that.

In the book “Because of Uniqueness: POP MART Founder Wang Ning’s Journey from Grocery Store to IP World,” written by renowned business journalist Li Xiang, Wang Ning repeatedly emphasizes a point: POP MART is an IP operation company, not just a blind box company.

The book reveals an overlooked detail: in 2015-2016, when POP MART was just a brick-and-mortar grocery store, Wang Ning discovered that sales of Japanese doll Sonny Angel accounted for a very high proportion, with a significantly higher repurchase rate than other categories.

This discovery led him to make a decisive cut, abandoning all other categories and going all-in on trendy toy IP.

The core of “Because of Uniqueness” reveals how POP MART balances “uniqueness” and “mass appeal.” It summarizes Wang Ning’s view of the business model:

Achieving industrialized art production (turning niche artist toys into standardized consumer products), building established channels (pushing trendy toys from niche circles into mainstream visibility), transforming the consumer market (shifting trendy toys from male-dominated “hobbies” to female-dominated “consumption goods”).

These “basic skills” lightly touched upon in the book have become the fertile ground for POP MART to incubate LABUBU today.

In CCTV’s “Dialogue,” Wang Ning further explained the company’s barriers: “Hard barriers” are the detailed operational accumulation since 2016; “soft barriers” are early discoveries of industry-leading artists.

He still remembers what he said when he met Molly artist Wang Xinming in 2016: “I hope Molly can sell 1 million units a year.” At the time, it seemed like a fantasy, but now it exceeds 10 million annually.

So when capital anxiously asks “where is the next LABUBU,” Wang Ning’s calmness actually has expectations—he said in “Dialogue”: “Any small category can give birth to a great company. Doing one thing well is very difficult.”

Today, Duan Yongping’s reassessment of this company also reflects this “building up little by little” accumulation.

As Duan Yongping said, investing is about “the total future”—this total is not built by a single hit, but through long-term operation and accumulation.

The key idea repeatedly emphasized in “Because of Uniqueness” is: the vitality of IP depends on whether it can integrate into consumers’ daily lives. Currently, POP MART has launched a series of strategic layouts to further break the stereotype of “blind box factory.”

First, entering the small home appliance market to seize physical space.

In April, POP MART will launch IP-based derivative small appliances, from electric kettles, coffee machines to hair dryers. This is not traditional cross-border expansion; the core is to broaden the expression boundaries of IP. When LABUBU appears on your dining table or in your bathroom, it’s no longer just a toy but a “life companion.”

Second, content layout to build a spiritual universe.

In “Dialogue,” Wang Ning said: “Movies can deepen IP’s thickness, and their scenes and stories can be applied to theme parks and product development, building a comprehensive IP commercial framework.” In late 2026, LABUBU will launch the 4.0 series; picture books and live-action animations in cooperation with Sony Pictures are also in preparation. If before it was “selling looks,” now it’s “selling soul.”

Third, park iteration to enhance immersive experience.

POP MART COO Si De revealed at the earnings conference that the city park Phase 1.5 is expected to debut in summer 2026, and Phase 2 is expected to start construction in 2027, adding themed scenes of SKULLPANDA and Star People. This combination echoes Disney’s path.

But all these require time.

In “Because of Uniqueness,” Wang Ning repeatedly emphasizes the importance of—“Respect time, respect management.” IP cultivation cannot be rushed; it needs time to sediment stories and reinforce memories through life scenarios.

He believes, “We are long-termists. We think that what should be done in ten years shouldn’t be rushed, and don’t expect to accomplish it in one or two years.” To him, slow is fast, less is more; focus on doing one thing slowly and doing it well to gain competitiveness.

This precisely explains why, in the best years of performance, he chose the most conservative growth guidance.

In recent years, POP MART has indeed been like a racing car speeding on an F1 track. In 2025, overseas revenue surged 291.9% year-on-year, with the Americas market growing 748.4% (about 7.5 times).

Such high speed consumes a lot of organizational energy.

“Hope 2026 is a year to get into the pit stop,” Wang Ning’s words imply that this company, having experienced the pains of rapid expansion, is choosing to slow down proactively, refining organization and global operations.

In “Because of Uniqueness,” multiple investors praise Wang Ning as “calm, reserved, rarely speaks, and emotionally steady, possessing many qualities of a consumer industry entrepreneur.” Unlike many internet entrepreneurs, Wang Ning rarely talks about “disruption,” but emphasizes “management.”

As the book states, POP MART is the result of “respect for time, respect for management.”

Proactively slowing down to build a thicker “moat”

In the final part of “Because of Uniqueness,” Wang Ning attributes POP MART’s success to two broader backgrounds: China’s “strength” in manufacturing and the “greatness” of the Chinese market.

He once said in an interview: “China has entered the dividend 2.0 stage. Reform and opening up have given us two weapons: one is Chinese manufacturing, the other is the Chinese market. Chinese manufacturing has been honed to maturity in the global market, capable of producing world-class quality products.”

This is something many overlook when discussing POP MART.

LABUBU’s ability to become a world-class IP is not just about design, but also because China’s supply chain turns artists’ wild ideas into high-cost-performance, tangible products.

In CCTV interviews, Wang Ning proposed the “From the world To the world” concept: originating from the world, then going to the world. He believes there’s no need to rely on traditional elements to go global—“world-class design language plus Chinese manufacturing capability” is what makes it widely accepted.

Today, when POP MART sells LABUBU in front of the Egyptian pyramids or under the Eiffel Tower in Paris, it’s not just trendy toys but also a “sentiment consumption” mode defined by Chinese enterprises.

Finally, let’s return to the question that caused market panic: what if POP MART has no LABUBU?

In fact, the most valuable part of POP MART’s story isn’t how it creates hits, but how it continues to respect “management” after hits.

In the latest earnings conference, Wang Ning also answered this with data.

He said POP MART is an IP commercialization platform. Even if all performance from LABUBU is removed, the company still grows rapidly. In 2025, besides LABUBU, six major IPs—SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, MOLLY, DIMOO, Star People—each exceeded 2 billion yuan in revenue, with 17 IPs earning over 100 million yuan annually.

One thing is certain now: POP MART, choosing to proactively enter the “pit stop,” is not quitting the race but checking the engine, changing tires, and preparing for a longer track ahead.

“Because of Uniqueness: Wang Ning’s Journey from Grocery Store to IP World”

Li Xiang / Author

CITIC Press