Why does Iran always talk tough while giving way?

Yesterday they said the US military attacked 6 civilian ships, today they deny anyone is missing. Many say this is chaos in the official messaging, a battle between different minds, deep internal divisions.

Alright, let me ask a different question: if Iran really fell into internal conflict to the point of government paralysis, how could they still hold onto their nuclear leverage tightly under decades of maximum pressure from the US and Israel? Because they never intended to speak with a unified voice. But who says a country can only have one voice externally? Since no one says that, with two voices existing simultaneously, what are they actually following? Strategy, or an unspoken division of roles.

Many people only see the Revolutionary Guards shouting to block the Strait of Hormuz, then the government saying they’re willing to negotiate, and think they’re sabotaging each other. But they never consider that this might be a pre-designed script from the start.

It’s like you go to a company to resign, the boss slams the table and says, “If you want to leave, just go. We don’t lack you,” and HR turns around and says, “Think it over, we’ll give you a 500 yuan raise.” It’s like bargaining at the market—you pretend to leave, the boss pretends to persuade you to stay, but both are testing each other’s bottom line. Iran is the same: the “red face” is always the Revolutionary Guards, holding guns and nuclear plans, shouting the bottom lines they can’t back down from; the “white face” is always the elected government, responsible for international communication, leaving all negotiation space to them.

This incident with the fishing boats is textbook operation: first, use “US military attacking civilian ships” to dominate public opinion and show toughness domestically; then, use “no one missing” to give the US an exit, avoiding escalation. What seems like chaos is all carefully calculated timing.

What seems like internal conflict is actually tacit cooperation. What you see is always what others want you to see. Diplomacy is never a black-and-white question of right and wrong, but a game of advancing and retreating.

The most frightening thing isn’t the opponent’s tricks, but you mistaking their tricks for flaws, and smugly thinking you’ve seen through everything. #看K公社 #BTC重返8万