Over 70 trillion yuan in deposits are about to mature! Small and medium-sized banks are rushing to issue large-denomination certificates of deposit to attract deposits, with Moutai Rural Commercial Bank offering an interest rate of 2.15%.

This article source: Times Finance | Author: He Xiulan

In 2026, the banking industry will see a rare, record-breaking wave of large-scale deposit maturities. Some institutions estimate that the amount of China residents’ time deposits maturing this year will be approximately 76 trillion to 77 trillion yuan.

As the peak of deposit maturities approaches, together with banks’ net interest margin falling to a historical low, large-denomination certificates of deposit have quickly become a powerful tool for banks to stabilize deposits, attract savings, and balance liability costs.

Recently, mid- and small-sized banks such as Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH), Tianjin Bank (01578.HK), Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank, and Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank have been adding large-denomination certificates of deposit in large numbers. Their interest rates are clearly higher than those of state-owned large banks. For 1-year terms, rates generally range from 1.45% to 1.6%. Some banks’ 3-year rates have even broken above 2.15%. These products offer principal and interest protection, support online processing and transfer, and provide both individual and corporate (on the public-side) product lines. In contrast, the six major state-owned banks have lower interest rates, tighter quotas, and 5-year products are basically no longer available for sale, making the market’s segmentation and differentiation increasingly evident.

Industry analysis suggests that, in the short term, shifting toward short-term large-denomination certificates of deposit is becoming the mainstream trend, with banks proactively compressing long-term, high-cost liabilities. Going forward, mid- and small-sized banks will also gradually move away from pure interest-rate wars and instead compete through differentiated services and products, leading to a reshaping of the industry’s deposit-attraction landscape.

                      Image source: TuChong Creative

Wave of large-denomination certificate of deposit issuance

Recently, smaller banks such as city commercial banks and rural commercial banks have shown strong willingness to attract deposits, and the issuance cadence of large-denomination certificates of deposit has accelerated noticeably. The products mainly feature short terms, greater flexibility, and transferability, covering both individual and corporate customer segments.

For joint-stock banks and city commercial banks, Hengfeng Bank offered 3-year large-denomination certificates of deposit at an interest rate of about 1.9% this May. Jiangsu Bank offers a 1-year rate of 1.45% and a 2-year rate of 1.6%, and supports transfer. Tianjin Bank issued 1-year products in the Shandong region from May 1 to June 30, with a fixed stated annual coupon rate of 1.60%, paying interest at maturity, with a minimum deposit of 200,000 yuan.

Rural commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives have become the main force in this round of issuance, with high posting frequency and a wide range of term choices. Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank has been selling multi-term products from 1 month to 3 years starting May 1, with an interest rate range of 1.1% to 1.71%, and a total quota as high as 4.4 billion yuan. Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank issued 1-year products from May 8 to 14 at a rate of 1.45%; the products are transferable and the quota is 100 million yuan. Hebei Xianghe Rural Commercial Bank, Jiangxi Jiangzhou Rural Commercial Bank, Jiangsu Jinhu Rural Commercial Bank, and others also posted concentrated listings in early May, with 1-year rates mainly clustered around 1.4% to 1.5%, limited quotas, and support for transfer.

Of note is Moutai Rural Commercial Bank’s 3-year large-denomination certificate of deposit product issued on April 22, with a rate as high as 2.15%. The minimum deposit is 200,000 yuan, but the issuance volume was only 10 million yuan.

                      Image source: Moutai Rural Commercial Bank announcement

In addition, some rural commercial banks have also simultaneously launched corporate large-denomination certificates of deposit, offering them via directed sales to enterprise clients. Moutai Rural Commercial Bank issued a 2-year corporate product at the end of April with an interest rate of 1.8% and a minimum deposit of 10 million yuan. Jiujiang Rural Commercial Bank issued a 1-year corporate product at the same time with an interest rate of 1.5% and a minimum deposit of 10 million yuan; both support transfer. Shunde Rural Commercial Bank has continued issuing individual and corporate large-denomination certificates of deposit since April, with the corporate version starting at 10 million yuan, and terms covering from 1 month to 5 years.

In contrast, state-owned large banks keep large-denomination certificates of deposit on sale as usual, but quotas are tight and interest rates are low. The six major state-owned banks’ current 1-year rates are 1.2% to 1.35%, 3-year products are around 1.55%, and 5-year products are basically no longer available. Some high-threshold products (starting at 1,000,000 yuan) are sold out immediately upon launch, making it difficult for many ordinary depositors to subscribe.

Intensified games on the bank liability side

The concentrated issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in this round is directly triggered by the maturity of a large volume of high-interest deposits in 2026. The deeper logic is that, under the ongoing narrowing of banks’ net interest margins, it is an inevitable choice to balance the demand for deposit attraction and the cost of liabilities.

From 2021 to 2023, residents’ risk-avoidance sentiment warmed up. Coupled with deposit interest rates being at relatively high levels, large amounts of funds were locked into high-yield fixed deposits and large-denomination certificates of deposit with terms of 3 to 5 years. In 2026, this batch of deposits will mature in a concentrated manner. According to estimates by Guotai Haitong Securities, the scale of China residents’ time deposits maturing in 2026 will be approximately 76 trillion to 77 trillion yuan, representing an absolute peak in history. The schedule shows clear seasonality: the maturity scale in the first quarter may reach 32 trillion to 34 trillion yuan, creating a “high peak right in the first quarter” feature.

An industry analyst from the banking sector who did not wish to be named told Times Finance that banks currently face two major challenges. On one hand, depositors’ reinvestment interest rates have fallen sharply, increasing their willingness to shift funds into channels such as state-owned banks, wealth management products, and insurance. This intensifies the pressure on deposit outflows from mid- and small-sized banks. On the other hand, banks’ net interest margins have dropped to a historical low of 1.42%, getting infinitely close to the break-even warning line. Long-term high-interest liabilities have become a burden on profits, so banks urgently need to optimize their liability structure and control costs.

The analyst noted that in this context, large-denomination certificates of deposit have become a better tool that balances “stabilizing depositors” and “controlling costs.” Compared with ordinary time deposits, large-denomination certificates of deposit are priced with more attractive interest rates, and their transferability improves liquidity, making them more appealing to prudent depositors. Compared with earlier high-interest long-term liabilities above 3%, the current interest rate level significantly lowers liability costs and aligns with banks’ net interest margin management goals.

At present, the large-denomination certificate of deposit market shows a clear stratified pattern, and the strategies of different types of banks differ markedly.

In terms of interest rates, mid- and small-sized banks have a clear advantage. For city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, 1-year rates are generally 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points higher than those of state-owned banks, while 3-year rates are generally 0.15 to 0.35 percentage points higher. Using 200,000 yuan principal as an example, a 1-year large-denomination certificate of deposit from a mid- or small-sized bank yields about 200 to 800 yuan more interest than a state-owned bank, while a 3-year product yields about 900 to 2,100 yuan more. This has strong appeal for depositors pursuing stable returns.

In terms of the maturity structure, the trend toward shorter terms is obvious. To avoid locking in high-cost liabilities for the long run, banks generally compress the issuance of long-term products. Five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit are nearly nonexistent, 3-year issuance has sharply declined, and 1-year and shorter-term products have become the mainstream. This both reduces banks’ liability costs and matches depositors’ demand for fund liquidity.

Luo Feipeng, a researcher at Postal Savings Bank of China, told Times Finance that the main reason the newly issued large-denomination certificates of deposit currently focus on short-term products is that banks’ net interest margins are under pressure. To control liability costs and respond to the downward pressure on loan interest rates on the asset side, banks proactively compress high-cost long-term liabilities.

Luo Feipeng believes that in the future, mid- and small-sized banks will accelerate their shift away from traditional competition based purely on interest rates, moving instead toward a track of service optimization and differentiated product competition. This means that mid- and small-sized banks may enhance product attractiveness through customized products, convenient withdrawal services, and scenario-based marketing, rather than relying solely on interest-rate advantages to attract deposits.