Circle, looking forward to a stock rebound on the eve of earnings release

Circle stock drops 5% weekly, rebound expectations heat up before earnings release ↑

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock fell about 5% last week, closing in the $113 to $114 range. While regulatory uncertainty around stablecoins dampens investor sentiment, technical analysis combined with active institutional buying has focused market attention on the Q1 earnings report scheduled for May 11.

Down 62% from the 52-week high, but rebounded 130% from the low

As of the 9th (local time), CRCL stock closed at $113.67. Down 62% from the 52-week high of $298.99. The stock fluctuated between $108.91 and $114.80 intraday, with a trading volume of 11,936,345 shares. The 52-week low was $49.90, representing a 130% increase from the year’s low.

According to technical analysis, CRCL’s stock price formed a double bottom at around $86, with the neckline at $110. The current price is supported above the 50-day exponential moving average, and some analysts believe there is room to rise to $136 to $150 after the earnings report. Bankless Times states: “Technical rebound signals are clear; if earnings beat expectations, a short-term surge is possible.”

Wall Street’s average target price is $129, with Wells Fargo setting a $142 target

Analyst consensus rating is “Hold,” with an average target price of $129.06, about 16.1% above the current price. Wells Fargo raised its target to $142, offering an optimistic outlook. TIKR’s model indicates the stock could rise to $132 within 2.6 years.

However, the forward Price-to-Earnings ratio is approximately 95, indicating high valuation pressure. This suggests the market has high expectations for Circle’s future growth, but also that there could be significant downside if earnings fall short.

Institutional buying accelerates, Valentine, Vanguard, and ARK increase holdings

Institutional investor activity is noteworthy. According to Marketbeat, Valentine Partners recently bought 231,437 shares (worth about $18.35 million). Vanguard increased its holdings by 1.3%, now holding 5.65 million shares. ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, also added 1.5% more shares.

In contrast, insiders sold 617,000 shares (worth about $60 million) over the past 90 days. Currently, insiders hold a 10.85% stake. This is interpreted as some profit-taking, but overall institutional buying remains strong, and the supply-demand structure is considered healthy. Data from StockTwits shows retail investor sentiment leaning “bullish.”

Stablecoin regulatory risks and potential changes in USDC revenue structure

The main reason for the stock decline is the draft of the “Clear Act” released in March. The bill could ban stablecoin interest payments, directly impacting USDC’s revenue model. Circle reported $770 million in revenue in Q4 2025, up 76.9% year-over-year, mainly relying on interest income from USDC holdings.

TIKR analysis states: “In the Q1 earnings, key points to watch include USDC circulation, reserve management, and regulatory response strategies. Additionally, cross-border payments using RMB stablecoins are also worth monitoring.”

“Nano Payments” solution targeting AI economy unveiled

On the 8th, Circle announced the “Arc-based Nano Payments (driven by Circle Gateway)” framework. This micro-payment system supports economic activity among AI agents, enabling transactions of $0.000001 per payment with near-instant settlement and almost no gas fees using USDC.

Crowdfund Insider commented: “As the AI agent economy expands, demand for micro-payments is surging. Circle’s Nano Payments make micro-transactions feasible on traditional blockchain networks where fee structures previously made such small payments impossible.”

Furthermore, Circle is accelerating the development of B2B ecosystems, including integrating USDC with the global financial management platform Kyriba and expanding payment channels via Mesh. On the day of the Mesh integration announcement, the stock surged by 27.5%.

Earnings report on May 11 expected to set the direction

The market is closely watching the Q1 earnings report scheduled for May 11. Analysts expect focus on changes in USDC circulation, regulatory strategies, and the concretization of new business models. Whether innovative services like Nano Payments can translate into actual revenue will be key.

From a technical perspective, whether the $110 neckline can be broken will determine the short-term trend. If earnings beat expectations and regulatory uncertainties are alleviated, the target of $136 to $150 could be reached. Conversely, if regulatory risks intensify or performance disappoints, a retest of the double bottom at $86 cannot be ruled out.

TokenPost AI Note: This article uses summaries generated by a language model based on TokenPost.ai. Main content may be incomplete or inconsistent with facts.