$80k defense line is in urgent danger! Is BTC really afraid of Iran, or is it afraid of Powell?

Many people think this round of sharp decline is because of Iran.
Actually, what the market is truly afraid of is Powell.
The Middle East conflict is just the fuse; what really caused BTC to plunge is the "sudden cooling of rate cut expectations."
Because the only two things war can easily bring about are:
First, rising oil prices.
Second, a rebound in inflation.
And what the Federal Reserve hates the most is inflation.
So now the market logic is very surreal:
Iran acts, and crude oil rises;
oil rises, and rate cuts become difficult;
difficult rate cuts, and BTC gets hammered.
Therefore, Bitcoin, which claims to be the "king of decentralization," ends up watching US non-farm payroll data every day.
Tonight’s non-farm report is the key judgment.
If new employment continues to explode, it indicates the US economy remains resilient, and the Fed has no urgent need to cut rates. BTC might continue to retrace.
But if employment slows down, the market will quickly start trading "dovish expectations." At that point, not only will BTC rise, but US tech stocks will also recover together.
Currently, what I am most concerned about is:
1. Whether crude oil can hold steady at high levels;
2. Whether US bond yields will continue to rise;
3. Whether ETF funds will continue to flow out.
Because what truly determines BTC’s medium-term direction is not retail investor sentiment, but institutional money.
Many retail investors are still asking:
"Can I buy the dip?"
Institutions are asking:
"When will the Fed start printing money?"
That’s the difference.
My simple view is:
In the short term, the market will definitely fluctuate violently, but as long as global liquidity ultimately shifts to easing, the overall trend of BTC is still not over.
After all, the most classic phrase in the crypto world is:
“Bad news comes first, then it drops, and after dropping, it turns out it still has to rise.”#日本国债上链24小时交易