Bitcoin to Hit $1 Million in Five Years, Says VanEck

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• VanEck’s Matthew Sigel says Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years as adoption expands among institutions.

• Bitcoin’s move above key cost levels keeps $85,000 in focus, though recent ETF outflows show demand remains uneven.

VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, has said Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years, placing one of the market’s boldest price targets back at the center of crypto discussions. Sigel made the forecast during a CNBC interview on May 6, citing central bank adoption, long-term investor behavior, and growing interest from younger market participants.

Bitcoin price traded near **$81,221 **during the interview, according to market data cited in the report. A move to $1 million would require Bitcoin to rise more than twelvefold from that level. The forecast also comes after Bitcoin recovered from lower levels and returned above **$80,000, **giving analysts fresh room to assess whether the market has entered another bullish cycle.

Sigel said Bitcoin adoption may follow a pattern seen in other digital industries that began with younger users before moving into the mainstream. He compared the trend to video games, which grew from a youth-centered activity into a wider consumer market over several decades. His point focused on holding behavior, with younger investors showing more willingness to allocate to Bitcoin over time.

Central bank adoption also formed a major part of Sigel’s argument. He pointed to the first central bank buying Bitcoin for national reserves as a structural shift for the asset. That type of demand differs from short-term trading, since reserve buying can support a longer adoption curve if more institutions follow the same path.

Other market figures have issued similar long-range Bitcoin forecasts. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also projected a possible move toward $1 million in April 2026. Eric Trump separately said on May 6 that Bitcoin would surpass that level. VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck had earlier set a $300,000 target for Bitcoin during a 2024 CNBC appearance.

Previously, VanEck noted that Bitcoin could exceed $2.9 million by 2050 under its base-case outlook. The firm said Bitcoin may grow beyond a short-term trade and become part of the core financial infrastructure if adoption continues.

Bitcoin Signals Point Toward Near-Term Strength

Near-term market data also shows several bullish signals. Bitcoin price has moved above the True Market Mean near **$78,200 **and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $79,100. When the price trades above both levels, active investors and newer holders often move back into profit.

Glassnode analysts said Bitcoin’s next structural resistance sits near the Active Realized Price around $85,200. This level tracks the cost basis of non-dormant supply and now acts as the next key zone for traders.

BTC True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis | Source: Glassnode

Futures positioning has also shifted. Funding rates moved from negative to slightly positive after months of pressure from short positions. That change suggests some leveraged bearish trades have already closed.

Options data adds another layer to the setup. Market makers reportedly hold short gamma exposure near $82,000, with about $2 billion positioned around current prices. This structure can force dealers to buy as prices rise, although it can also increase selling pressure if the market reverses.

ETF flows now show renewed demand as Bitcoin trades above $80,000. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $467.4 million on Tuesday after $532 million flowed in on Monday, bringing two-day inflows close to $1 billion. The recent inflows mark the fifth consecutive day of net inflows after last month’s ETF outflows.

The fresh demand lifted total Bitcoin ETF assets under management to $109 billion, marking a new 2026 high. In the seven days since this month began, Bitcoin ETFs have drawn $1.63 billion in fresh inflows after adding $1.97 billion in April.