📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 08/05/2026

The latest statistical data shows that the correlation between the FGI and Winrate remains low and continues to lean negative (r ~ -0.325). This continues to support the view that FGI is not suitable as a tool for predicting price direction or identifying trade entries, but it still has practical value in quantifying position risk. More specifically, trading performance generally weakens when market sentiment moves into extreme euphoria, making FGI more useful as an early risk-warning signal rather than a signal for expanding profit expectations.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and number of recorded days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.5% • R:R=1:1.20 • n=145
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 47.2% • R:R=1:1.12 • n=198
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.9% • R:R=1:0.89 • n=92
Share of days with performance above the average level (46.70%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
🤤 Greed: 36.3%
😐 Neutral: 40.0%
😨 Fear: 55.1%
😱 Extreme Fear: 70.7%
➤ Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust profit expectations when entering trades:
📈 When FGI is high, profit expectations should be raised to maintain a sufficiently strong R:R, helping offset the risk of a lower win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, profit expectations can be lowered to improve capital turnover speed and make profit-taking easier.
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