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After losing the $80k level, Bitcoin's biggest enemy isn't war, but "high interest rates."
Many newcomers see the escalation in Middle Eastern tensions and think:
"Bitcoin is finished."
But experienced traders know more clearly:
What truly determines Bitcoin's fate is never missiles, but interest rates.
Because Bitcoin is fundamentally a high-risk asset.
As long as U.S. dollar interest rates are high, global funds prefer to buy dollar assets.
Risk assets naturally come under pressure.
And the most troublesome part yesterday was:
War might push up oil prices;
Oil prices might increase inflation;
Inflation could slow down rate cuts.
So the market started to worry:
"High interest rates will last longer."
This is what caused Bitcoin to fall below $80k.
But it's not yet possible to say the trend has reversed.
Because the market hasn't shown systemic panic.
ETF funds haven't been flowing out wildly.
This indicates that many long-term funds are still on the sidelines.
The truly critical point is tonight's non-farm payroll report.
If employment data cools significantly, the Fed's pressure will increase.
The market will re-bet on rate cuts.
And Bitcoin usually reacts in advance.
But if the data remains strong—
Then the high interest rate environment might continue.
Bitcoin will remain under short-term pressure.
So now the market has entered a particularly surreal phase:
Bad news that's too bad will cause a drop;
Good news that's too good will also cause a drop.
Because what the market fears most now isn't a weak economy.
It's:
"Will the Fed not bail out?"