Middle East Tensions + Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise, BTC Becomes the World's Most Tragic "Sandwich Cookie"

How difficult is BTC right now?
Above is war;
Below is the Federal Reserve;
And nearby, the US dollar index is watching every move.
It’s almost like being attacked from three sides.
Yesterday, after news from the Strait of Hormuz came out, the market’s first reaction was:
“It's over, safe-haven mode activated.”
So funds are frantically fleeing high-risk assets.
BTC is at the forefront.
Many people have noticed a phenomenon:
Now BTC is increasingly resembling tech stocks in the US stock market.
When the Nasdaq falls, it drops with it;
When the dollar rises, it also feels uncomfortable;
When the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish stance, it immediately weakens.
This indicates that institutionalization is becoming more and more advanced.
But there’s also a problem—
BTC is no longer the “independent market” king it used to be.
It has begun to deeply bind with global liquidity.
Therefore, tonight’s non-farm payroll data is far more important than ordinary economic indicators.
If employment is strong, and US Treasury yields continue to rise, BTC will face greater short-term pressure.
But if the data falls below expectations, the market will quickly shift into:
“Interest rate cut trading mode.”
By then, don’t just talk about $80k; many funds might even call for $100k again.
And the biggest market suspense right now is actually:
Will the situation in the Middle East continue to escalate?
If it’s just localized friction, market sentiment will quickly recover.
But if the Strait of Hormuz truly faces long-term risks, global energy prices will spiral out of control again.
Then the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pace will be completely disrupted.
So right now, BTC isn’t really fighting against bears.
It’s hard against the “global macro” environment. #Gate广场五月交易分享