The Strait of Hormuz sounding the alarm, the crypto market's bulls feeling cold!

Can BTC make a comeback from the brink?

Who was the busiest person in the global markets yesterday?
Not a trader.
It was the "withdraw button."
Because after the sudden escalation of the Middle East situation, global assets started a frantic "parachute jump."
Especially in the crypto world.
Many people were still sharing gains on social media in the morning, but by evening, they were already researching "long-term value investing."
After BTC fell below $80k, the market instantly split into two factions:
Bears: It's over, war has arrived;
Bulls: It fell well, finally a chance to buy in.
Actually, looking at history, the impact of Middle East conflicts on BTC usually has only two phases:
First phase: Panic selling;
Second phase: A retaliatory rebound after liquidity returns.
The reason is simple.
What truly determines BTC in the long term is never missiles, but the US dollar.
As long as the market starts betting on rate cuts again, BTC is likely to take off once more.
So tonight’s non-farm payroll data has become more important than the Middle East news itself.
If the non-farm data is strong, the Federal Reserve will continue to "talk tough," market expectations for rate cuts will decline, and short-term pressure on BTC will increase.
But if employment cools significantly—that’s when the story changes.
Wall Street will immediately switch to:
"Economy slowing → must cut rates → risk assets benefit."
At that point, it’s not impossible for BTC to re-stand above $80k.
There’s also an important signal:
Although oil prices surged sharply yesterday, they quickly retreated afterward.
This indicates that the market is not truly pricing in a "large-scale war" at the moment.
Otherwise, oil prices wouldn’t fall back so quickly.
In other words:
Right now, it’s more emotional shock than full-blown chaos.
So BTC is more like waiting for a reason.
A reason to reignite risk appetite.
And tonight at 8:30, the US non-farm payroll data might just be that trigger.
#WCTC交易王PK