Just invested 80k and was hit by the "Middle East Horn" drop! BTC plummeted overnight, are the US and Iran serious this time?

The US-Iran negotiations were originally in a "business meeting mode," but suddenly, the Strait of Hormuz was filled with gunpowder. A statement from the U.S. Central Command saying "Intercepted and retaliated against Iran's attack" instantly shifted the global markets into "flight mode."
US stocks turned around from high levels, crude oil first surged then crashed, performing a classic V-shaped rebound. The worst hit was Bitcoin, which just touched around $80k before being pushed underwater. Many retail investors just shouted "bull run back soon," and the next second, their wallets started "auto-shrinking."
The question is: is this wave a short-term emotional sell-off or a prelude to a major war?
Currently, the market's biggest fear isn't the conflict that has already happened but an "uncontrollable escalation." What is the Strait of Hormuz? The world's energy gateway. As long as there’s trouble here, oil prices will spike like drinking Red Bull, and global inflation will take off again.
And what is the Federal Reserve most afraid of? A secondary rebound in inflation.
So tonight’s non-farm payroll data becomes extremely critical. If the data is strong, the Fed’s rate cut expectations will be further delayed, and both US stocks and BTC may continue to be hit; if the data is weak, the market will start fantasizing about "rate cuts to save the market."
Right now, BTC is like a "sandwich cookie": pressed down by geopolitical risks on top, supported by rate cut expectations below.
But one detail worth noting — although BTC broke below $80k, there was no panic sell-off. This indicates that institutional funds haven't truly withdrawn; large capital seems to be waiting for the data to land.
Many veteran investors have already noticed the pattern: every time there's a Middle East conflict, gold rises first; but when dollar liquidity begins to loosen, BTC will once again become the "king of risk assets."
So tonight’s non-farm payroll data might decide two things:
First, whether the Fed can still cut rates this year;
Second, whether Bitcoin will return to $70k or re-challenge $80k.
In one sentence:
The Middle East is responsible for creating panic, and the Federal Reserve is responsible for deciding wallet thickness. #Gate广场五月交易分享