Bitcoin - Ethereum had a good rhythm this week, can we expect a rally in the near future?

From the market's fundamentals, the current Middle East situation shows intense volatility and repeated tug-of-war, with regional geopolitical tensions continuously affecting the global energy markets. Last week, the dollar, crude oil, and gold (XAU) moved in tandem, all influenced by geopolitical developments.

It is quite obvious that when there is slight friction between the US and Iran, the dollar and crude oil tend to rise, while gold weakens. However, Bitcoin still moved in the opposite direction, and in actual trading conditions, it didn't have a significant impact—similar to the expectation of support at 67,000, forming a bottom and moving higher; Ethereum at 1850 was also bullish in sync; the medium-term monthly K-line shows a rebound trend toward 82,000. Ethereum remains weak and unable to break through the strong resistance at 2,460. This long-term cycle is still acceptable; it’s not that we are not bearish, but that the range signals are not very clear!

Reviewing the overall market sentiment, it’s just two words: (panic). Greedy traders have already fled, retail investors are holding onto short-term luck for both bullish and bearish moves, rather than truly understanding the market trend. A small dip is seen as a bear market, a slight rise as a bull market. Currently, the market structure is just a four-corner range oscillation. There are no eternal bull or bear markets. Knowing to temporarily avoid the storm in a bear market is more important than rushing into a bull market!

Over the past two months, the upward trend has been consistently hinted at, and the bottom line has been made clear. Regardless of the outcome—good or bad—we must open our eyes and see clearly, not get caught up in the correctness of market trades. The result is the best answer. As often said in live broadcasts, there is no trader who always wins, but understanding that cognition is a good thing is crucial.

Most retail traders enjoy chasing short-term opportunities in the market, like bees frequently entering and leaving flowers. This consumes energy and effort, yet they often fall into losses they can't escape from. Then they question the market’s strength, doubt their own ability, or make excuses like not being suitable for trading. Maybe they are right! But have they considered deeper issues? Have they looked beyond the surface phenomena to see the essence?

Over the weekend, the market was mostly quiet. The daily chart still needs to watch for the Monday turnaround signal tonight. To briefly mention the intra-market situation: Bitcoin hit around 79,300 last night, going long; Ethereum at 2,260, also long. According to the plan, reduce positions and watch for upward volume. Bitcoin between 80,800-81,500; Ethereum between 2,350-2,380. Protect the positions by reducing exposure if needed, but no change for now...

That’s all for now. Wishing everyone a happy weekend! #BTC重返8万 $BTC $ETH