As of May 9, 2026, the popular prediction event on the Polymarket platform surrounding the COMEX gold futures price at the end of June has become one of the most closely watched macro trading targets in the crypto prediction market. The event has accumulated trading volume exceeding $4.7 million, with participants constructing a complete probability distribution curve at different price thresholds. Source: Polymarket, using the official settlement price of CME gold futures as the standard, the market assigns the following probabilities to each price range: a 10% chance for gold reaching $5,500, 14% for $5,400, 16% for $5,300, 23% for $5,200, 38% for $5,100, 51% for $5,000, and 68% for $4,900. Near $4,600, the probability once surged to a high of 80%, while the probabilities for $4,500, $4,400, and $4,300 dropped back to 55%, 41%, and 25%, respectively, with only 17% remaining for $4,200. This distribution exhibits a clear right-skewed pattern with a "high probability concentration between $4,900 and $5,000." $5,000 is a key inflection point in the probability curve—above this level, the probability decreases by 10 to 15 percentage points for every $100 increase in price; below $4,900, the probability declines accordingly.