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On the early morning of April 30, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, with an 8-4 vote, decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting without any change. However, beneath this seemingly market-expected decision, there was the most intense policy disagreement since October 1992. The composition of the four dissenting votes was highly dramatic: Stephen Miller, a board member nominated by Trump, advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan supported maintaining the current rate but strongly opposed including language in the statement that suggested “further adjustments” toward easing. This was an unprecedented split in direction—among the four dissenters, one called for looser policy, while three favored a more hawkish stance. Within the Fed, fundamental divisions have emerged regarding the inflation trajectory, the transmission of energy shocks, and economic outlooks, and this split occurred at a critical window just as Chair Powell’s term is ending and Waller is about to take over. How Powell’s “final dance” before stepping down will set the tone for the transition period.
At the press conference after the April policy meeting, Powell made his last public appearance as Federal Reserve Chair. He described the current monetary policy stance as “in a very good place,” emphasizing that, given the dual shocks of oil prices and tariffs, a rate cut remains on hold. Powell also announced that, in May,