#Gate广场五月交易分享

The Federal Reserve can’t sit still anymore! Besides inflation, these five major risks are “encircling” the United States!

Just early this morning, the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, ranking the risks that threaten the U.S. financial system within its five-risk framework!

1. The Oil Price Shock Is the Biggest Variable Right Now

The most worth watching is the oil price shock—something the Fed didn’t even mention last year, but which this time has jumped directly to second place! In the previous autumn report (November 2025), mentions of the oil price shock were zero.

In just half a year, the Middle East situation has escalated rapidly: on February 28, the U.S. and Israel carried out military action against Iran; Brent crude oil held steady above $100 per barrel; and U.S. gasoline prices broke through $4 per gallon—energy shocks have thus shifted from a peripheral issue to a sword hanging over the financial system.

The report warns that if the Middle East conflict drags on and supply chains are damaged, it will push up inflation in the U.S. and globally, while also weighing on economic growth. Violent swings in energy markets could spark inflation alongside liquidity tightness, forcing central banks worldwide into a “stagflation dilemma.”

2. Geopolitical Risk Jumps to #1

Seventy-five percent of surveyed institutions list geopolitical risk as their top concern. Against the backdrop of the continued erosion in the Russia-Ukraine war, sudden changes in the Middle East, and U.S.-China rivalry becoming normalized, this has become a shared anxiety across the financial industry.

Geopolitical risk and oil price shocks are essentially two sides of the same coin: Middle East conflict is both a direct reflection of geopolitical risk and a root driver behind oil price shocks. The Fed combines them into a composite shock—this way of handling them in itself sends a signal: policymakers recognize these two risks are highly interconnected and are difficult to disentangle on their own.

3. Rising Risk of an AI Bubble

Mentions of AI risk jumped from 30% to 50%, rising from fifth to third!

More importantly, this time the market’s concern is not only about AI technology itself, but also the structural vulnerability that AI companies are expanding at scale with heavy reliance on debt financing.

Concerns raised by surveyed institutions include: AI investment is becoming increasingly reliant on leverage; large-scale AI applications’ impact on the labor market; and correlation failures caused by multiple institutions using the same AI infrastructure. CFA Institute and BlackRock both characterize AI-related risks as “persistent vulnerabilities.”

AI is a good technology, but its current expansion pattern is a bit too reminiscent of the early-stage internet bubble of the early 2000s: massive capital rushing in, soaring valuations, and unclear business models for profitability. Once financing conditions tighten, AI projects that rely on debt financing will be hit first. This risk isn’t the fault of AI itself—it’s the fault of the capital structure.

4. Hidden Leverage in Private Credit

Private credit was not listed separately in last year’s report, but in this year’s published report it rises directly to a tie for third (50%), making it the risk with the biggest change in rank.

This segment saw explosive growth after 2008, because banks were forced to shrink their operations after the crisis and non-bank institutions filled the gap. But private credit markets are far less transparent than public markets, making it difficult for investors to see just how much risk they are actually taking on.

The Fed’s assessment of private credit is that its risks are limited and manageable, but it adds a caveat: if redemption waves continue and market sentiment keeps deteriorating, the availability of credit for some high-risk borrowers could tighten significantly.

The subtext is: things are still stable for now, but don’t be too optimistic. The top 10 perpetual business development firms hold about 80% of private credit assets—extremely high concentration. Once these few come under pressure at the same time, the system’s fragility will be exposed.

5. Inflation Drops in Rank, but Probability Rises

Persistent high inflation received 45% approval votes, ranking fifth. This figure is 2 percentage points higher than last fall’s 43%, but its rank has fallen from third.

It sounds contradictory—why has concern increased, yet the rank declined?

The reason is simple: other risks are rising too fast. Geopolitical risk, oil prices, AI—these new variables are heating up rapidly, pulling in more attention.

This doesn’t mean inflation risk has disappeared. The report explicitly warns that higher interest rates combined with persistent inflation will create significant financial and economic shocks. It’s just that, within the Fed’s current priority ranking, these new threats are more urgent.

6. Hedge Fund Leverage Is a Time Bomb

According to data from the Fed’s April 2025 report, hedge funds have total assets of about $12.5 trillion, with an average total leverage ratio of about 9x (total nominal exposure/net asset value). The top fifteen funds reach total leverage of 12–13x.

This is the highest level since the Form PF data reporting system was established in 2013.

These highly leveraged funds are important buyers in the U.S. Treasury market. If the Treasury market experiences a pullback, they may be forced to close positions to cut losses, triggering a chain reaction. The Fed has already made clear in earlier reports that existing statistics on hedge fund leverage may underestimate the true risks.

Summary

By laying out the five major risks that could impact the next 12 to 18 months, the Fed—at bottom—has presented a game of attention allocation.

Old risks haven’t gone away, and new risks are emerging. Geopolitical risk, oil, AI, private credit, and inflation—each one requires policymakers to put substantial effort into addressing. But regulatory resources are limited, and it’s the prioritization that determines who gets attention.

Judging from the trends in this report, the market’s attention is undergoing a subtle shift: inflation has been partly accepted as the new normal; AI has moved from the margins into mainstream narratives; and oil price shocks have jumped from zero to being ranked among the top two risks. This shift not only reflects the market’s real-time assessment of risks, but also foreshadows the core logic that will drive capital flows and asset pricing over the coming period.