Did the non-farm data fool everyone? The real threat to the crypto market isn’t “no rate cuts”

U.S. non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs in April, better than expected, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.

But behind the shiny numbers are all kinds of tricks:

· The labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level since October 2021—many people have simply stopped looking for work.

· Based on the original population calculations, the true unemployment rate is about 5.3%, not 4.3%.

· Wages are rising slowly, and tech companies (Meta, Microsoft) are still cutting jobs.

· Employment mainly relies on healthcare and delivery services, with a weak foundation.

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The Federal Reserve: No rate cuts in sight, stagflation’s shadow is here

The market has already concluded that there will be no rate cuts this year, and even the probability of rate hikes next year is 40%.

Even more troublesome is that the situation in Iran could push oil prices higher, while the economy has already started to soften—this is “stagflation” (a weak economy + high inflation).

The Federal Reserve is stuck between two difficulties: if they cut rates, they fear inflation; if they don’t, they fear recession.

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For crypto: Old logic fails; the new risk is stagflation

Previously, no rate cuts = bearish, so BTC should fall.

But after this data came out, Bitcoin didn’t drop—it actually held above $80,000. Because “no rate cuts” has already been priced in by the market, it can’t fall further.

What’s truly dangerous is stagflation:

· If the economy suddenly gets worse, people will first sell coins to cover living expenses → a sharp drop

· At the same time, high inflation refuses to cool down, and the Federal Reserve dares not loosen policy → capital costs stay under pressure

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Advice for the crypto community

· Don’t count on rate cuts to pump the market—this expectation has been shattered.

· Watch two signals: weekly unemployment numbers (to see whether the economy suddenly deteriorates), oil prices (to see whether inflation gets out of control).

· If either one turns into a blow-up, BTC may fall first (a liquidity crisis), then rise again (a safe-haven move).

· Don’t go all-in betting on a single direction; keep stablecoins or cash ready.

· BTC and ETH tend to hold up relatively better, but in a stagflation environment volatility will be much larger.

$BTC ‌