The US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net inflows for six consecutive weeks, totaling approximately $3.4 billion, setting the longest record since summer 2025. On the surface, it appears to be continuous institutional investment, but after the last two days of last week, it turned into net outflows, with a single-day outflow of $146 million on Friday.

The background of this inflow is the market’s repeated swings in expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, BTC retested the $80k support level. ETF funds are not solely buying, but are involved in complex interactions with futures leverage and options hedging.
It is worth noting that CME Bitcoin futures open interest has risen simultaneously, but the funding rate remains negative, indicating that hedging positions, rather than speculative positions, dominate. Institutions buy spot via ETFs while shorting in the futures market to lock in the basis. This arbitrage structure seems stable but actually amplifies market fragility.
If macro sentiment reverses or liquidity tightens, forced liquidation from arbitrage could trigger a chain of sell-offs. The current ETF inflows more reflect Wall Street’s demand for structured products rather than genuine belief in Bitcoin itself.
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