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Markets just hit fresh records and honestly, there's a lot to watch this week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed Friday at all-time highs, which is setting up an interesting backdrop for what's coming.
Here's what's got my attention: the April jobs report Friday is probably the biggest deal. Economists are looking for around 60,000 new jobs, which would be a pretty sharp drop from the 178,000 we saw in March. That's a significant slowdown to digest. The Federal Reserve is definitely paying attention to this, especially as they figure out their next move on rates. We're also getting JOLTS data Tuesday, ADP employment numbers Wednesday, and Challenger job cuts Thursday before the jobs report Friday lands. So basically a full week of labor market signals.
What's interesting is that initial jobless claims actually hit their lowest level since 1969 last week, and the private payroll data has been showing some improvement. But the pattern over the past 10 months has been pretty choppy, so it's hard to call a clear trend just yet.
Beyond the jobs report Friday, semiconductor earnings are going to be crucial for testing whether the AI spending narrative actually holds up. The chip sector just had its best month since 2000, with AMD up 70% heading into earnings Tuesday. Arm Holdings is up 40%, and Lattice Semiconductor reports Monday. AMD just announced price increases and landed a major Meta deal, so analysts will be watching whether the company's guidance matches the bullish signals we got from Big Tech's earnings last week. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet just raised their combined AI spending plans to nearly 725 billion dollars.
On the consumer side, we've got Disney reporting Wednesday along with Marriott and Restaurant Brands. McDonald's reports Thursday. Lower-income consumers have been pulling back on fast food lately, so that's something to monitor. Travel demand seems solid but there's pricing pressure building.
Overall, the jobs report Friday is really the centerpiece, but we're getting a full picture this week of whether the economy can actually support this AI spending boom and where consumer strength really stands.