Recently, there’s been growing talk in the market that altcoins aren’t rising, but I feel like the reason has finally started to become clear.

A major market maker has released the latest analysis, and it’s quite interesting. In short, the traditional four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market is starting to stop working. Previously, BTC would rise first, then ETH would follow, and finally the whole altcoin market would climb as well.

However, when you look at 2025 data, the period during which altcoins aren’t rising has been shortened to an average of about 20 days. It has shrunk from 60 days the year before to about one-third. In other words, the time window during which the entire altcoin market maintains an upward trend has become extremely short.

What’s happening is that capital is becoming too concentrated in large-cap assets. Funds are flowing only into BTC (currently around $80.24K), ETH (around $2.32K), and some large-cap altcoins. Small- and mid-cap altcoins are left largely behind.

One cause of this is the rise of ETFs and digital asset treasury companies. These investment products have indeed brought in stable capital, but the range of investable targets is limited. It’s like a “closed garden,” where capital gets trapped there—so that’s why we’re seeing the phenomenon of altcoins not rising.

In addition, individual investors’ attention is shifting toward stock-market themes such as AI, quantum computing, and rare earths. That means they’re looking away from the crypto market.

That said, there are signs of hope. The ETF filings for Solana and XRP are progressing, so the expansion of investment targets has already begun. SOL has recently risen to $93.71, and XRP is also steady at $1.43.

The remaining question is whether the price increases of BTC and ETH will spill over to the entire altcoin market. If that happens, the situation of “altcoins not rising” could change. However, the analysis suggests it may be difficult for individual investors’ interest to return from the stock market.

In the end, forecasts based on the traditional four-year cycle no longer hold true. We’ve entered an era where it’s important to judge changes in liquidity flows and investor sentiment. Since the market is also changing quite structurally, it seems that to read the next market moves, you’ll need to track capital flows—not just rely on technicals.