Recently, I've been thinking about how the story that altcoins aren't rising isn't just a temporary stagnation, but that the market structure is genuinely changing.

Looking at the data released by major market maker Wintermute, it seems that in 2025, the period during which altcoins continue to rise was about 20 days on average. That's a reduction to one-third of the 60 days from the previous year. This is a significant change.

The traditional cryptocurrency market operated on a cycle where capital flowed into Bitcoin first, then into Ethereum, and gradually into altcoins. That narrative-driven market created a certain momentum, but that flow is clearly weakening.

The question of why altcoins aren't rising in itself seems to indicate that the market mechanism has changed. ETFs and digital asset treasury companies have evolved into a "closed garden." In other words, while capital continues to flow stably into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some large-cap tokens, there is no longer significant capital movement into a broader range of altcoins. Liquidity is being confined to specific assets.

Additionally, individual investors' interest is shifting toward themes like AI and quantum computing in the stock market. As a result, capital is concentrating in a few large-cap tokens, while small- and mid-cap altcoins continue to languish.

Wintermute points out that three scenarios are necessary to break the situation where altcoins don't rise after 2026. These are: ETFs and digital asset treasuries expanding their investment targets, Bitcoin and Ethereum's rise spilling over into the entire altcoin market, or individual investors' interest returning from stocks to cryptocurrencies.

Looking at Solana's ETF application and XRP's ETF movements, signs of expanding investment targets are already emerging. However, it's still unclear how much capital will actually flow into the altcoin market.

The era of relying on the traditional 4-year cycle for predictions is over. Moving forward, it will be crucial to understand the flow of liquidity and changes in investor sentiment.