#Gate广场五月交易分享

Bitcoin Reclaims $80K, and Multiple Positive Developments Help the Bears Give Way to the Bulls

After yesterday’s bearish U.S. jobs (non-farm payroll) data, Bitcoin stubbornly reclaimed $80k again today. But note this time: it’s not just a simple rebound. It’s a qualitative shift in technical indicators. Bitcoin has also shown strong strength in breaking above the weekly middle band, and, layered with multiple positive catalysts, it suggests that the bears are running out of steam and the bulls are back!

1. Verification of the Core Upward Driving Forces

‌Institutional capital continues to buy in batches‌

‌ETFs are the main engine‌: The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for 19 consecutive days (as of May 9). In April, net inflows totaled $1.97 billion, setting an annual record. BlackRock’s IBIT has hit a single-day peak of $630 million in inflows (source: on-chain data).

‌Supply–demand imbalance intensifies‌: Currently, miners produce only 450 BTC per day, while ETF average daily demand exceeds 8,000 BTC (Bitwise forecast). The shortfall needs to be filled by aggressive buying from the secondary market, creating sustained buy pressure.

‌The technical structure completes a qualitative change‌

‌Key resistance broken‌: Bitcoin has held above $78.2k (real market average) and $79.1k (short-term holder cost basis), confirming the end of the bear market (Glassnode data).

‌Target channel opens‌: After breaking through the long-term descending trendline dating back to the 2025 October high, the next resistance lies at $85.2k (non-dormant supply cost basis). After breaking through, it will open up room toward $98k–$100k.

‌Market sentiment and positioning are favorable‌

‌Shorts fuel is piling up‌: Perpetual contract funding rates are still negative, indicating that a large number of short positions remain open (CoinDesk derivatives data). As price moves upward, it’s likely to trigger a short squeeze cascade.

‌Concentration of coin holdings‌: Exchange BTC reserves have fallen to 2.2 million BTC (a 7-year low). Whale wallets (holding >10,000 BTC) have seen net inflows for two consecutive weeks, indicating that more long-term locked supply is being accumulated (Wincent monitoring).

2. News-Driven Validation of the Upside Logic

‌The macro environment shifts toward risk-on‌

‌Rate-cut expectations strengthen‌: Although April’s non-farm data came in above expectations, slower wage growth implies inflation is under control. The market’s probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 68% (CME data), and expectations of easier liquidity are bullish for crypto assets.

‌Hidden boost to safe-haven demand‌: The U.S.–Iran situation repeatedly raises the “alternative asset” characteristics of gold and Bitcoin (see the synchronized rally triggered by geopolitical conflict on May 4).

‌Policy breakthroughs are imminent‌

‌Advancement of cryptocurrency legislation‌: The U.S. two parties have reached preliminary consensus on a stablecoin regulatory framework (Bloomberg news). If the bill is enacted, it will eliminate compliance uncertainty and attract traditional capital to accelerate market entry.

‌On-chain confirms a healthy uptrend‌

‌Long-term holders are reluctant to sell‌: LTH (>1 year holders) have only $180 million in daily sell pressure, far below the cycle peak of $1 billion (Glassnode). This indicates that major players are confident about the outlook.

‌New demand is strong‌: The rally is led by spot demand (not leverage-driven). ETF inflows and institutional allocations form a sustainable “backstop” force.

3. Next Upside Path and Catalysts

‌Short-term target‌: $85k (Fibonacci 0.382 retracement + the options “maximum pain” concentration zone).

‌Breakthrough catalysts‌:

① If the U.S. CPI data on May 15 is below expectations, it will reinforce the rate-cut logic;

② Bitcoin spot ETF weekly inflows break above $3 billion (currently only 11% away from the threshold);

③ Public companies such as MicroStrategy announce additional holdings (a potential follow-the-leader effect from corporates).

‌Conclusion‌: Bitcoin is currently in a “triple-hit” moment of institutional accumulation + technical breakout + macro shift. The $80,000 level has already turned from resistance into support. As long as ETF weekly net inflows remain positive and there are no macro “black swan” events, the uptrend should continue, and June could see a challenge of the $100k level.