Opinion: The current AI supercycle will last 15 years, but most people are still in the FOMO first stage of stocks.

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Author: Rand Group (@cryptorand)

Compilation: Deep潮 TechFlow

Deep潮 Guide: Crypto KOL Rand Group breaks down the AI super cycle into four stages, from chips to infrastructure, robots, and platform software, highlighting the core targets and risk-reward ratios for each stage. His judgment is: the first stage (semiconductors) is already over, the second stage (power/thermal/network) is being priced in, and the real asymmetric opportunities are in the third stage—robots, space, defense, and nuclear energy.

The AI super cycle will last 15 years. It is now the third year.

Most investors are still buying stocks from the first stage, but the smart money has already shifted to the third stage.

I have divided the entire cycle into four stages, each marked with the most important targets.

The AI super cycle is the biggest investment theme of this generation. Bigger than mobile internet, bigger than cloud computing. A sustained 15-year structural transformation that will reshape every industry in the global economy. Large-scale cloud providers have just committed $725 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, nearly double last year’s amount. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta each alone are investing over $100 billion.

This is not speculation.

🔴 Stage One: Completed (2023-2025)

The foundational layer is finished. AMD rose 78% in 2025, NVDA increased by 39%, Intel just delivered a explosive Q1, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index above 10,000 points for the first time. Chips still drive every stage, but the historic opportunity to enter has passed, and the risk-reward ratio has compressed.

Targets: NVDA, AMD, ARM, INTC, AVGO, MU, GLW

Sectors: Semiconductors, Storage, Photonics/Optics

Status: Foundation layer completed, still growing but already priced in.

🟡 Stage Two: Peak Construction (2025-2027)

Most investors are just waking up to this stage. CEG acquired Calpine, becoming the largest private power producer in the US with 55 GW. GEV rose over 200% in a year. VRT co-designed cooling solutions for NVIDIA’s Rubin architecture. GLW’s fiber optic demand increased by 74% within the year. Nuclear SMR is the biggest dark horse—OKLO, SMR, BWXT are directly powering data center layouts.

There’s still upside, but the most obvious names have already moved.

Targets: CEG, GEV, VRT, VST, TLN, ANET, GLW, MOD, EQIX, OKLO, SMR, BWXT, NNE

Sectors: Power/Grid, Cooling, Networking, Nuclear SMR Peak Construction

Note: Nuclear SMR is a hidden big opportunity.

🟡 Stage Three: Positioning Window (2026-2028)

AI moves out of data centers and into the physical world. Most people will be late.

Tesla is transforming the Fremont factory into an Optimus robot production line, with $25 billion in capital expenditure, aiming for mass production in late 2026. Rocket Lab set a revenue record of $602 million, with backlog orders of $1.85 billion. LUNR rose 47% within the year, holding contracts worth $943 million. KTOS’s Valkyrie drone was selected by the Marine Corps.

The positioning window is now open.

Targets: TSLA, RKLB, LUNR, KTOS, AVAV, PATH, ISRG, MP, FCX, ALB, ASTS

Sectors: Robotics/Autonomous Vehicles, Space/Defense/Drones, Rare Earths

Judgment: The asymmetric risk-reward ratio is here.

🟢 Stage Four: Final Stage (2028+)

The endgame. Microsoft’s capital expenditure is $190 billion, Alphabet’s is $190 billion, Amazon’s is $200 billion, Meta’s is $145 billion. Google Cloud’s backlog exceeds $460 billion. They are building AI software dominance and infrastructure for AGI. Quantum computing is still early, but IONQ and D-Wave are already laying the groundwork.

Platform dominance in the software layer will win the entire super cycle.

Targets: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, IONQ

Sectors: AI Software Dominance, AGI Infrastructure, Long-term Thesis

Strategy: Buy on dips.

Core Conclusion

Stage Two confirmed (Large cloud providers’ $725 billion capital expenditure)

Stage Three is where the smart money is positioning—robots, space, defense, nuclear energy

SMR is the core trade from 2026 to 2028

Most people will lag by 12 months before rotating into these names

A 15-year super cycle. It’s not a single trade. Stage one is over, stage two is being priced in, and stage three is where you should be positioned.