Bitunix Analyst: The market remains cautious ahead of non-farm payroll data, BTC tests the $80k liquidity support and fails

Crypto News: On May 9th, the market focus has fully shifted to the upcoming release of the U.S. April non-farm employment data tonight.
The market expects an increase of 62k jobs, significantly lower than the previous 178k, reflecting a gradual cooling of the U.S. labor market.
However, the latest ADP “small non-farm” report added 109k jobs, exceeding market expectations, which has led the market to reassess whether the employment market still remains resilient.
Currently, the market is more concerned not with whether the economy will immediately enter a recession, but whether the “low hiring, low layoffs” structure will continue.
If the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth remains sticky, the Federal Reserve will have more room to keep interest rates high for a longer period.
Recently, Fed officials including Harker and Collins have also continued to signal a preference to keep rates unchanged.
On the geopolitical front, although there was renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, both sides continue to leave room for negotiations.
The U.S. emphasizes no intention to escalate the situation, and Middle Eastern media reports that the U.S. and Iran have reached some consensus on certain maritime blockade issues, temporarily easing fears of a full-scale conflict escalation.
Crude oil prices have fallen back to around $95, but gasoline prices within the U.S. remain high, indicating that energy inflation pressures have not been fully alleviated.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin broke below $80,000 yesterday.
From the liquidation heat map, there is significant liquidity around $78,000, and a break below could trigger further liquidations; however, there is also dense short liquidity between $82,000 and $83,000, indicating the short-term market remains in a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears.